Unifor vote could be 'razor thin' if Stellantis contract ends in ratification, says auto expert

Now that Unifor has new contracts in place withFord and General Motors, attention shifts to Stellantis.

Only 54 per centof Ford's employees voted in favour of their deal, while union members of GM approved their contract at a rate of 81 per cent.

Dave Cassidy, the president of Unifor Local 444, which represents workers at the Windsor Assembly Plant, says the outcomes were dramatically different based on the demographics of each automaker's workforce.

"When you look at what transpired with Ford and General Motors, the facts of the matter are General Motors has a lot more junior members," he said.

"In the three-year tenure, they're going to go up just under $19 an hour depending where they're at in the grid today. And there is some senior people with Ford Motor Company that weren't happy and felt that they fell short on some areas like pensions."

Cassidy says the unionshould know Tuesday what the negotiating timeline will be for an agreement or possible strike.

Talks between Uniforand theDetroit Three automakersbegan in August. The negotiations followpattern bargaining, which means means the deal worked out with the previousautomakers is supposed to serve as a template for deals with the others.

One auto industry expert warns the biggest challenge for Unifor securing a deal with Stellantis could be an internal one for the union.

Greg Layson says there's work to do between Cassidyand Unifor National President Lana Payne.

"There's not a lot of work to do between Unifor and Stellantis. The deal is the deal. It now becomes the linchpin's job and in part, Dave's job to find some middle ground, agree to this pattern and move on."

Layson, who's the digital andmobile editor for Automotive News Canada, says it's going to take additional education campaigns from the union's top brass explaining to its members why pattern bargaining is so important.

"A Stellantis ratification vote is going to be razor thin on either side of the majority line. It's either going to be 54 per centin favour or 54 per centagainst. It's going to be in that range."

It's also going to take some effort from Cassidy to accept that pattern and sell it to his members, he says.

Ford is giving its unionized workforce a 10 per cent pay raise right away, followed by a twoper cent increase next year and another threeper cent in 2025. There are also improvements to pensions, and new workers will advance to the top of the pay scale in half the time, not to mention a $10,000 ratification bonus.

The GM deal was just ratified this weekend and it included the same 10 per cent, two per cent and threeper cent wage hikes.

WATCH |Unifor talks Ford autowoker contract that nets 54% ratification vote

Unifor talks Ford autowoker contract that nets 54% ratification vote

1 year ago

Duration 6:42

Unifor's national president Lana Payne details what she calls a life-changing agreement that was narrowly ratified by Ford autoworkers on Sunday and what she would say to the people who voted against the deal.

Cassidy says the feedback from his local union received regarding the Ford deal was that many members were not happy.

"We need to make some moves And we're going to do that."

According to Layson, while not the exact same workforce as Ford, Stellantis is very similar in its makeup prioritizing retirement and pensions.

"Unifor will find themselves in a very similar situation again, where they just need 50 plus one to pass this. And I don't know if it's there. If you talk to Dave Cassidy, if you listen to the labour experts, Windsor holds the biggest bargaining power or biggest chunk of voters when it comes to within the union and they can sink any agreement."

Cassidy says there's not a lot of leeway in terms of pattern bargaining, but there's always room for improvements.

"On the overall package, when you move numbers around, we'll see what that looks like. But, you know, our members were very clear to us that they weren't happy with the deal that was presented, the Ford Motor Company."

Layson says historically the union has never allowed automakers to break the pattern, so it doesn't change during this contract negotiations no matter how much local members oppose the outcome.

"You've watched Lana Payne really come out and send the message that pattern bargaining is the way to go. But you have workers in Windsor who don't believe that, and I'm really interested to see how they vote when this comes to fruition.

Layson says pattern bargaining is "ingrained" in Canada.

"This is the way it's been and this is the way it's going to be. If you talk to the union executives, Dave [Cassidy] is out to change that."

Cassidy says he plans on speaking with Payne when in Toronto during bargaining this week to review and compare their strategies and philosophies.

"I know that we will bring a deal back for our members that will be right for our membership. And we need to just keep focused on that. It does not matter about pattern or anything else on the deal that we think is best for our members."