Alberta election campaign reaches the halfway mark

Alberta's upcoming election could be the closest the province has seen in almost half a century.

• Leaders square off in Alberta election debate
• Comparing the PC, Wildrose, NDP and Liberal fiscal plans

To some, Alberta is more dynasty than democracy, with the Progressive Conservatives' hold on power in the province running nearly 44years.

In 2012, it looked like the Tories' grip was slipping yet the partywon handily. Now the PC reign appears vulnerable again as the Tories seem to bein a three-way race for power.

"We are only halfway through the election. It's an early time to be judging outcomes," said PC Party Leader Jim Prentice on Tuesday.

It's a scene that seemed unthinkable just weeks ago, but todayPrenticewas clearly shaken after fielding questions about his willingness to work in a coalition government andwhether Alberta's PC dynasty could be coming to an end.

2-front war

"We talk about the PCs facing that two-front warsomething that they really haven't had to do before," saidCorey Hogan,a political strategist withHill +Knowlton in Calgary.

He says a series of polls show a tight three-way race between the NDP, Wildrose Party and the PCs with some showing the governing party polling third.

"For the first time in my memory we have a real race and a real race on issues. Do you want to cut?Do you want to spend?Or do you want something in between?"said Hogan.

According to Vote Compass, governmentaccountabilityis the No. 1issue among Albertans.

• Accountability top issue for voters, Albertans tell Vote Compass

"Budget deficit, government spending, taxesthese issues are still ranked very high on the list of issues most important to Albertans, butfor government accountability to top that list, it's unprecedented," said Clifton van der Lindenwith Vox Pop Research, the company behindCBC Vote Compass.

Budget backlash

Much of the backlash against the PCscomes from the party'srecent budget adocument heavy on tax hikes for peoplebut not for corporations.

David Stewart,a political scientist at the University of Calgary,says polls showing a tight race may not be entirely accurate but he adds they can still have an impact.

"It can have a mobilizing impact on people even if they are not accurate in the sense that the polls are not giving the usual sense of conservative inevitability," he said.

It's a shift in perception that is already showing up on social media.A newracyad was put out by 1ABVotea movement whose aim is to stop vote splitting among progressive voters.The groupreleased avideo imagininga world wherepoliticians arechosen on a datingapp likeTindror in this casePindr.

"The narrative arc follows a couple seeking a spark and something different in their relationship, with the analogy being current state of governance in Alberta. In considering their options, we use humour to present voting options to viewers,"saidBrian Singh, one ofthe group's founder, in a release.

Time for change?

He says the main driver for change in Alberta is the sense that the PCs have simply been in power for too long.

So far it may be working, assupport for the NDP and their leader RachelNotleyis surging.

The only televised leadership debate in this campaign was heldtonight. It will be achance for the leaders in this three-way raceto separate themselves from the pack.

Of course the biggest obstacle to political change in Alberta is likely voterapathy, which is aproblem fuelled by another hotly-contested race: the Calgary Flames in the NHL playoffs.