Oscar nominations 2016: CBC's Eli Glasner predicts the finalists

For months,filmmakers, actors and others racing towards the Oscars have been running an awardsseason gauntlet: gamely participating in amarathon ofred carpets, film junkets,academy luncheons andcountless film festivals all designed to convince the roughly 6,100 Academy Awardvotersto chosetheir names on the ballot.

It all comes to a head early Thursday morning, with the revelation of the 2016 Oscar finalists.

Much has been made in recent years of the composition of these academy voters,who are mostly men (76 per cent)and mostly Caucasian(94 per cent), withan average age of 63.

Still, for all of its faults, foibles and failings, the Oscars remain arguablythe most prominent,universally-recognized yardstick of cinematic excellence.Even a single nominationmeans lifelong bragging rightsand, typically, a boost at the box office.

That said, here are my guesses for the academy's picks for 2016.

Best picture

Who will be nominated: The Revenant, Spotlight, The Big Short, The Martian, Mad Max: Fury Road.

Who will be snubbed: Although it rode intothe Toronto InternationalFilm Festivalon a wave of anticipation, The Danish Girl faded quickly from sight and failed to make a splash upon release. Similarly, Carol's delicate lesbian love story hasn't gaineda lot of traction with the generally conservative academyvoters and could alsofind itself left out.

Best director

Who will be nominated:Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (The Revenant), Tom McCarthy (Spotlight), Adam McKay (The Big Short), Ridley Scott (The Martian), Todd Haynes(Carol).

Who will be snubbed: Although Ryan Coogler's Creed was avibrant, visceral and surprisingly relevant revival of the Rocky franchise, it hasn't been considered an awards season heavyweight.Steven Spielbergcould squeak in with Bridge of Spies, but it's more likely thatthe best director categorywill bewhere voters express their appreciation for Haynes's artfulCarol.

Best actor

Who will be nominated: Leonardo DiCaprio(The Revenant), Bryan Cranston (Trumbo), Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs), Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl), Matt Damon (The Martian).

Who will be snubbed: Again, I'd love to see Creedget some love andMichael B. Jordan on thislist.But while my heartsays "yes," my cynicalbrain says "no."Also expected toearn a "no" isJohnny Depp's overcookedmobster from Black Mass.

Best actress

Who will be nominated: Cate Blanchett (Carol), Brie Larson (Room), Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl), Jennifer Lawrence (Joy), SaoirseRonan (Brooklyn).

Who will be snubbed:On the periphery is Charlotte Rampling'smasterful, slow burn of aperformance in 45 Years. She'sfascinatingto watch, but it's unlikely that her performance will unseat Hollywood's newest It-Girl Vikander.

And the balance

What else? Getting into the weeds of the supporting actor and actress races istricky business, because that's where the Oscars tend to throw curve balls.

It would be lovely to see Idris Elba break through for Beasts of No Nation,but the Netflix movie'sviolent content and piddling theatrical release has hurt its chances.

In terms of Canadiana,our best chances restwith London, Ont.'sEmma Donoghue for her screenplay of Room. The film's young co-star,Vancouver's Jacob Tremblay, isa long shot for the supporting actor category, but he'll have Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight), Mark Rylance(Bridge of Spies)and the resurgenceof Rocky (Creed'sSylvester Stallone)to contend with.

Overall, the academy willlikely stay true to votingfor movies with the most acting, but not necessarilythebest acting. The same is true for direction.The Revenant may have divided critics, but it's impossible to ignore the extreme effort that went into the epic (andespeciallywhen influentialindustry publicationVariety publishes a cover depictingDiCaprio and Inarrituunder the title"The Survivors"). What The Revenant, TheBig Short,The Martian and Mad Max: Fury Roadall share is thatthey are big pictures with massivestakes. Thisleaves smaller, more solemn and serious films such as Carol, Spotlight and Sicarioat aseriousdisadvantage.

Reviewing the best picture winners of the pastfive years shows that the academy has favouredtitlesthateither celebratethe craft of moviemaking (The Artist, Argo,Birdman)or harkened to the epic,widescreentalesthe industry was built upon (The King's Speech,12 Years a Slave).

With all the various guilds and studios lobbying for votes, predicting the final resultis a mug's game.Can WillSmith's charm save hissaccharine performance inConcussion? Will the Spielberg fan club rally behindBridge of Spiesand itsall-AmericaneverymanTom Hanks? MightaStraight Outta Comptonsurge silence ever-presentcomplaintsabout the Oscars'lack of diversity?

Theonly thing guaranteed(well,besides DiCaprio's nomination) is thattherewill be lots to argue about as soonasthe nominations are announced.