Oscars 2016: Academy Award predictions from CBC film critic Eli Glasner

On Hollywood Boulevard,the Oscar posters are mounted, the scaffolding is being assembled and,in a day or so,the winners of the 88th Academy Awards will be announced.

What a race it's been.

Flash back to September, when this year's red carpet roller-coaster started, and the road to Oscar looked quite different. Fan favourite Bryan Cranston was starring in the topical costume drama Trumbo,while best actorincumbentEddie Redmayne seemed to zero into the zeitgeist with his transgender transformation inThe Danish Girl.

Yet here we are just months later as those filmsjoin otheralso-rans (hello there, Black Mass)whose Oscar moxieneverfully matured. Instead, three subsequent films rose to the top.

InSpotlight, the critics' favourite, director Tom McCarthy masterfully conveysthe story of a newspaper's expos onabuse in the CatholicChurch with empathy and exactitude.

Thenthere was the surprise breakoutof the season:The Big Short. From thedirector of Anchorman and featuringa cast of actors wholookslike they belong in an Ocean's Eleven spin-off, thismadcap examination of the U.S.mortgage crisis gave Wall Street-weary audiences a "Mad as Hell"moment for the new millennium.

But with the ballots now carefully counted, the late-December release The Revenant is the one to beat. So how did Leonardo DiCaprio's tango with an ornery grizzly bearvaultto the top? Here are five reasons whyI think The Revenant will win.

1. Box office bang

With a box office haul of $380 million US and counting, The Revenant has something many Oscar contenders lack:a clear connection to an enthusiastic audience. Thoughcritics have been divided on its artistic merits, the industry loves a film that resonates and those box office bonafides could help the movie earn the 50 per cent of the votes needed to secure a best picture win.

2. The Oscar whisperer

The Revenant has one of the globe's premierOscar consultants in its corner. Cynthia Schwartz developedher craft whileworking under movie Svengali Harvey Weinstein. Since setting up her own publicity firm, Schwartz has helped Crash, Argo, The Hurt Locker and Birdman all land best picture.

3. The diversity factor

For Hollywood voters looking to soothe their guilt over #OscarSoWhite, The Revenant offers a couple of advantages. Not only is the intense survival thrillerdirected by Mexican filmmakerAlejandro Inarritu, but afterDiCaprio's Golden Globe acceptance speech (for best actor in a film drama),the moviehas pivoted to a politically progressive agenda that pays tribute to First Nations history and culture.

4. Lining up for Leo

Love him or hate him,DiCaprio is one of the last true movie stars. He's thekind of name that can draw audiencesin droves. With fourOscar nominations under his belt, he's an established favourite withthe academy. The "It's Leo's turn" movement has serious traction.

5. The epic advantage

At the Oscars,all that subtlety earnsyou is a weak smile and a place in line at the buffet. The academy tends to reward films that are extreme, epic and emotional.It's not the best actor orbest director that wins, but rather what voters consider most actedand most-directed.

When it comes to the kind of old-fashioned, ambitious movie that "Hollywood just doesn'tmake anymore,"The Revenant rises above. Sure, The Big Short won the Producers Guild's top prize,but comedies don'tplay well with the film academy. ThoughSpotlight shines a light on rampantsex abuse,director McCarthy's understated approach can't compete with DiCaprio's spit-spewing andteeth-chattering inInarritu'sBro-Magdon tour-de-force.

Make all the bear jokes you want, but my prediction is thatThe Revenant goes home with Oscars for best picture, actor, director and cinematography.

Choosing the rest

And about all those other categories...

Best actress: Brie Larson's searing performance in Room is the clear front-runner

Best supporting actress:It's not fair, but Alicia Vikander appearing in both Ex Machina and The Danish Girl gives her a clear advantage.

Best supporting actor:Mark Rylance's sly comic turn in Bridge of Spies was charming, but going up against Sly Stallone in hissentimental return as RockyBalboa in Creedmakes this no contest.

Bestoriginal screenplay:This will be Spotlight's consolationprize and a well-deserved one.

Best adapted screenplay:By all rights, this should go to Nick Horby's Brooklyn or the artfully restrained Carol. Then again, remember what I said about subtlety? Bank on The Big Short.

In the technical categories, when in doubt, mark your ballots for Mad Max: Fury Road.Best editing, sound mixing, soundediting and production design? All hail Furiosa.

Best score:The academy will not pass up the opportunity to give 87-year-old Italian composer Ennio Morricone his first Oscar for The Hateful Eight.

For my complete list ofOscar picks, see my ballot here and fill one of your own here.