Advance poll numbers don't show massive early turnout for Burnaby South vote

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is fighting for his political life in Monday's federal byelection inBurnaby South, spending the last few weeks campaigning in the riding to win himself his first seat in the House of Commons.

Voters don't seem to share his sense ofurgency, however. New figures from Elections Canada put advance voting over the weekend on track with other byelections held over the last few years byelections that didn't feature a national leader on the ballot.

Three byelections are taking place Monday in the ridings of Burnaby South in B.C., Outremontin Quebec and YorkSimcoe in Ontario. Voters in the three ridings had the chance to cast their ballots early over four days between Feb. 15 and 18.

According to the advance polling figures released by Elections Canada Tuesday, Burnaby South boasted modestly higher turnout figures than the other two ridings,with 5,462 voters trampingout to the polls over the weekend.

YorkSimcoe was next with 4,283, followed by Outremont at 3,795. When rendered as a share of the last tally of eligible voters (the list of electors is revised when new byelections take place), Outremont's advance polling turnoutnarrowly edged out YorkSimcoeat 5.4 to 5.2 per cent.

For Burnaby South,that number was 7.2 per cent. In 2015, Burnaby South also had a higher number of people voting in the advance poll than either Outremontor YorkSimcoe. As a share of all voters, advance turnout in 2015 was 12.3 per cent inBurnabySouthlower than Outremont's 12.6 per cent but higher than YorkSimcoe's9.9 per cent.

That suggests that while Burnaby South is punching a little above its weight in advance voting an indication of some interest on the part of voters it isn't a notably high number. Four byelectionsheld since 2015 have had higher advance turnout, including two that flipped from one party to anotherand two that weren't particularly competitive.

The low turnout in Outremont scene of Tom Mulcair's historic breakthrough for the NDP in a 2007 byelection also signals that voters aren't taking an abnormally keen interest in these votes.

Byelection turnout typically is much lower than in general elections. It has averaged just under34 per cent since 1997, while turnouthas averaged just over 63 per cent in general elections. The new advance turnout figuresin Burnaby South, Outremont and YorkSimcoe suggest that these three ridings look to be about on track for that level of voter participation as well.