Stephen Harper avoids recession label on eve of GDP numbers

If the GDP numbers to be unveiled Tuesday do indeed indicate thatCanada is in atechnical recession,one could hearConservative Leader Stephen Harperjust dismissit as a "modest recession, a tiny recession,"a"so small you can hardly see"itrecession.

It would bethe same language he used, minus themockingtone and the word recession replacing the word deficit,when he sneered atJustin Trudeau's plan to go in the redin order to spend money on infrastructure.

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Back in May,StatisticsCanadarecorded that Canada's economy had shrunkby anannualizedrate of0.6per centin the first three months of 2015. It wasthe first time the economy hadcontracted on a quarterly basis since 2011. According to Thomson Reuters, economists expect StatsCanto report Tuesday that the economy contracted at anannualizedrateof 1.0 per cent in the second quarter.

With two consecutive quarters recording negative GDP, that would, at least by some definitions, indicate a technical recession.

Where Harper seemed to be a big fan of repeatedlypounding home the politically chargedD-word with Trudeau, he nowhas become label averse when it comes to describingCanada's overall economy and negative GDP growth.

'Haven't got into that debate'

On Monday, while campaigning in Ottawa, Harper said it wasmore important to describe the realities of the economic situation, rather than using labels or definitions.

"I haven't got into that debate," Harper said.

Harper instead explainedthis downturn is really all about one sector of the economy (oil), while other sectors of the economy are growing. Canada's fiscal position, he said, remains very strong,proof of which can be found in the$5-billionsurplus recordedin thethree months of the fiscal year although the Finance Departmentsaid a big chunkof that was due to the selling of Ottawa's GM shares.

While Harper wasn't delvinginto the "what is a recession"debate,he seemed to be more than happy, or at least amenable,to allow Conservative candidate Jason Kenneyto wadein on the issue. Kenneydelved into the minds of economists when he appeared on CBC'sPower & Politics on Sunday, explainingwhat they really mean by a technical recession.

"I'm suggesting a recession is typically defined as a widespread downturn, not a discretesectoraldownturn," he told host Rosemary Barton.

Unfortunately, for the Tories, andas Barton pointed out in a recent column, the government'sownanti-deficit legislation states that"recessionmeans a period of at least two consecutive quarters of negative growth in real gross domestic product for Canada, as reported by Statistics Canada."

Interestingly, NDP LeaderTom Mulcair, in Saskatchewan on Monday pledging millions innew funding for women's shelters, didn't seem to get too hung up on the recession label.

Asked about the definition, Mulcairsimply declared that itmeans two consecutive quarters of negative growthand that "we're talking about a technical definition."

More importantly, he stressed, was that400,000 good manufacturing jobs have been lost, unemployment is up since the last recession in 2008, all because, he said, Harper's plan isn't working.

Trudeau wasn't out campaigning today, but the Liberals, so far,alsoseem to be somewhatmuted on the whole "recession"thing. Writing for Maclean's, Mike Moffatt, anassistant economics professor at WesternUniversity's Richard Ivey School of Business andeconomic adviser to Trudeau, noted the different definitions of the word and the complexities of identifying a recession.

'Economy was quite weak'

As Moffatt says, in real terms, "it matters little if the economy grows by a tenth of a per cent in the second quarter or shrinks by a tenth of a per cent. Regardless of which side of the line we end up on, the economy was quite weak."

It may mean little to the Tories that some economists say that any kind ofcontraction would be short-lived. Words, definitions and labelsmatter in politics, which is why the Tories seem intent on broadening the definitionof the R-word oravoiding the label altogether.

On Monday, Harper was invited behind the counter of a TimHortonsinGananoque, Ont.,where he told the staff,"Tell me what to do, just don't let me handle the cash." Said as a joke certainly, but that last bitmay not have beenthe best-timed quipfor a leader who is seeking to boost his government's economic credentialson the eve of the GDP report.