7 questions as Canada-EU trade deal comes down to the wire

Last week's negative votes in Belgium's Wallonian legislatures set a majorhurdle in the path of Canada's trade deal with the European Union.

But Belgium's potential constitutional crisis should it push on with the deal, consider the regional votes non-bindingand sign anywayis not theonly unresolved matter, as the European Union's foreign and trade ministers convene Tuesday morning in Luxembourg.

Their top two agenda items are"decisionon signature" and "decisionon provisional application" for the Comprehensive Economic Trade Agreement.

It's go time.

Here'swhat'sunresolved and what to watch for:

Will Belgium sign?

It's been a long weekend for senior European Commission officials, huddled in talks with Belgium's foreign minister, Didier Reynders, and the minister-president of Wallonia, Paul Magnette.

Theywere seekinga way to preventafew million French-speaking Belgians from the country's more rural and less economicallyprosperoussouth from effectively vetoing the whole deal.

Belgium's regional legislaturesmust agree to this kind of treaty. Twodidn't.

The solution could take two forms, potentially working in tandem:

The first would be some kind of a declaration between the EUand Belgium, or between the federal government of Belgium and Wallonia, or maybe both, to address Wallonia'sconcerns. If the Walloonsaccepted this, Belgium could sign on with less fear of a constitutional challenge from its regions.

The second way to ease their objectionslies in a process already underway: revising the joint interpretative declaration meant to be finalized at Tuesday's meeting.

What's in the declaration?

Canada's CETA negotiators arestill in talks with the European Commission to finalize the text of a jointinterpretative declaration that does not alter the negotiated text of CETA, but supplements it with some clarifications on contentious issues.

A five-page draft was circulated in Europe and promptlyleaked to the media and civil-society groupson Oct. 5.

Negotiating this declaration hashelped overcome resistance in several countries already.It could be revised again to getWalloniaon board.

More precise linkages between the current CETA text and the new clarifications in the declaration may appear in the final version.

Is the declaration binding?

A key concern expressed by Magnette last week was whether the declaration would have sufficient legal value, given that both Canada and the European Commission are unwilling to reopen the actual text of the agreement.

His words echoed civil-society protest groups like the Council of Canadians, who presented a legal opinionarguingthis is politicalrhetoric, not a legallybinding agreement.

But ina contraryopinion shared with CBC News,David Kleimann, a researcher ofof EUtrade law and policy at the European University Institute, said both the Vienna Convention on the law of treaties and the text of CETAitself leave it"beyond doubt that the declaration carries the same legal quality and weight" and would be applicable in court.

"Article 30.1 [of CETA]provides that "[t]he protocols, annexes,declarations, joint declarations,understandings and footnotes to this agreement constitute integral parts thereof," he wrote.

The final wording of the interpretative declaration, assuming it's ready for release on Tuesday, will be key.

How will provisional application work?

Along with the decision to proceed with ascheduled signing ceremony on Oct. 27, ministers must decide Tuesday how much of CETA can apply provisionally once the European Parliament holds its ratification vote, possibly early in 2017.

Full ratification will require votesin 42 national and regional legislatures across Europe(including Wallonia they'll geta do-over.)

Canadian officialsbelieveover 90 per cent of the deal canbe provisionally applied. But there's been little clarity from the EUon what will be carved out, based on both political considerations and jurisdictional law.

Signs point to the investor-state dispute settlement provisions, already renegotiated once,waiting for full ratification.

What about visas?

On the face of it, there's no direct link between CETA and Canada's ongoing dispute with Romania and Bulgaria over visa requirements.

But Romania in particular has said it will not remove its reservation to signinguntil the visa requirements are lifted.

Canada may need to make its announcement this week to make sure thisdoesn't become another stumbling block.

Sources suggest it will happen, but as recently as last Thursday what was thought to be a done dealboggeddown again, leaving hard feelings on the Romanian side.

Immigration Minister John McCallum's office will say only that discussions continue.

Is everyone else ready?

Every other cat now seems herded. It wasn't easy.

After a long campaign to win overcentre-left politicians and trade unions, akey constitutional court decisionin Germanywascritics'last chance to block the deal.

On Thursday, it failed.

Austria had committed to follow suit.

Late last week it confirmed it toowould sign CETAdespite a clear lack of enthusiasm from its chancellor, who said Friday that tradewith Switzerland was more important.

CETA has objectors across Europe. Their besthope now is rallying a majority in the unpredictable European Parliament to vote against.

What about compensation here?

In Canada, someindustries worryabout what this deal brings.

Fish processors, who believe CETA'sremoval of minimum fish processing requirements will cost jobs in Newfoundland and Labrador, arelooking for the federal government to provide compensation. There's been no announcement yet.

Dairy farmers, who lose a sliceof the Canadiancheese market to European imports, are also in talks about compensation.

The automotive sector, among others, also risks losses because of new European imports.

OtherCanadian businesses desperately wantCETA implemented.

In a letter this weekend, the Canada Europe Roundtable for Business urged Magnette's government to reconsider, saying it would be "particularly disappointing" if Belgiumwas "responsible for the failure of the highest quality, and most progressive, trade agreementthat both Europe and Canada have ever negotiated."