Taliban release of Colin Rutherford could be linked to peace talks

Colin Rutherfordis walking free after more than five harrowing years in Taliban captivity, but thecircumstances around his release arecloaked in secrecy.

Foreign Affairs Minister Stphane Dion and officials at Global Affairs Canadawillonly say Rutherford has been released to authorities in Afghanistan, and that the small Gulf state of Qatarhad a role in the mediation.

• Canadian Colin Rutherford freed after 5 years in Taliban captivity
• U.S. army Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl, held by Taliban, arraigned on desertion charge

But why would the Taliban, whichCanadian soldiers foughtagainst in bloodybattles,nowreleasethe Toronto-born historystudent it once labelled a spy?

The Taliban themselves have chalked it up totheir "humanitarian sympathy" and "sublime Islamic ethics."

An English statement from the group, released to reporters on Tuesday, said the move came at the behest of and"in accordance with the instructions of the leaderof the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, [Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansour]."

But Middle East experts say it's likely not the Taliban'ssympathy or ethicsthat led to Rutherford's release.

Some countriespay hefty sumsin exchange for the release of their citizens. Otherslike Canada and the U.S.refuse to exchangemoney for prisoners, but rely on intermediaries like Qatar, whichhas relations with elements operating in the region, to work through back channels.

Timing of releaseis 'suspect'

One expert said the timing of Rutherford's release on Monday, the same day that Afghan peace talks began in Islamabad, is likely more than a coincidence.

"It seems a little suspect, in terms of the timing, to put it charitably,"ChristianLeuprecht, a professor at the Royal Military College and Queen's University in Kingston, said in an interview with CBC News."When they've held someone for five years, why release them now?

"It comes at a time when the Qataris are trying to get the Afghan peace process back on the road,and this could be an olive branch."

TheTalibanhaveso far been excluded from nascent peace talks. The four participants Afghanistan, the U.S., Pakistanand China are hoping to bring a "permanent peace" to the country after more than 14 years of bloodshed. But without one of the main aggressors at the table, the talks are stuck in neutral.

The Taliban's release of Rutherford, and otherhostages such U.S. Sgt.BoweBergdahl (who faces a court martial in the United States for desertion and is the subject of an investigation by theSerialpodcast), could be seen as an attempt to curry favour with Western powers and secure a seat at talks to decidethe fate of thecountry they've long tried to control, Leuprecht said.

"[The release of Rutherford] is atacit way for the Afghan Talibanto signalthat'We're not just the bad guys anymore. We might have taken himhostage, but we didn't execute him, we didn't mistreat him.' It'sa way of signalling to the world community that, look, 'Maybe you should be talking to us.'"

The Taliban'sreference to "Islamic ethics" and the fact they acted differently from ISIS or al-Qaeda in sparing Rutherford's lifecould be an attempt to distinguish themselvesfrom other Islamist groups.

"It's their way of saying, 'We are not the Islamic State, we are not Daesh. We are not cruelkillers and we are not scum bags.' And they might be concerned that all these groups ISIS, al-Qaedaand the Afghan Taliban areallbeing thrown into the same lot," Leuprecht said.

Qatar a powerbroker

Rutherford's release from captivity likelydepended in large part on the prowess ofQatar, a country of justtwo million people onthe Arabian Peninsula, and its ability to negotiate with radical groups in the region, Leuprecht said.

It has also carved out a niche for itself as a key player in theAfghan peace talks.

The country, aregional economic powerhouseawash with natural gas, has a vested interest insecuringrelative peace and stability in Afghanistan, a countrynot far from itsown border.

And its efforts to help secure Rutherford's releaseare away of telling the West that it can't be ignored as a key player in the region.

"It's their way of saying, 'We can work with the Afghan Taliban,' and 'We're a power broker,'" Leuprecht said.

Qatar has beeninstrumental in bringing together Afghan and Talibanofficials in the past for meetings in Doha, the country's capital.

The two sides have beenloath to call them peace talks, branding them as"research conferences" or "scientific discussions." And yet theTaliban havegone so far as to open an office, a consulate of sorts, in Qatar, to serve as a launch pad for these discussions.

"Qatar has always taken the approach that somebody somewhere has to talk to [the Taliban] and it allows them to mediate prisoner releases like this one," said Thomas Juneau,an associate professorat the University of Ottawa and a formerMiddle East analyst forthe Canadian Forces.

"It talks to everyone. It talks to Hamas, to Iran, to the Taliban. It has relationships with a whole bunch of actors. this has annoyed Qatar's main partners, namely Saudi Arabia and the U.S., but often they find it annoyingly convenient," Juneau said.

Qatar's involvement in securing Rutherford's release couldalso be interpreted as a signthat the country wants to bolster its relations with Canada.

"I think it's the Qataris reaching out," Leuprecht said. "TheQataris want to be a regional player and they want to be a global power, and they know, for instance, that Canada inherently plays an important role when it comes to these military coalitions."