Commons deadlock could trigger government cash crunch, get in the way of other House deadlines

An ongoing debate in the House of Commons could pushsome government departments into a cash crunch and run up against other deadlines as the end of the fall sitting approaches.

On Thursday, Speaker Greg Fergus made a point of reminding MPs that House rules state certain business needs to be addressed in the coming weeks. Heurged the parties to find a way to deal with those items despite the debate gridlock.

The House standing orders say that the boththe government's supplementary estimates part of the legislative process for asking Parliament for more money to cover initiatives that haven't already been funded, or require additional funding and all opposition days (which allow opposition parties to put forward their own motions)must be dealt with by Dec. 10.

"As we get closer to the end of the current supply period, the chair wishes to encourage the House leaders to keep these various principles in mind. I am confident that they can find ways to reconcile these important responsibilities," Fergus said.

The House has been unable to move forward with regular business for weeks as opposition MPs have pushedthe Liberal government to release documents related to a now-defunct foundation responsible for doling out hundreds of millions of federal dollars for green technology projects.

It's not clear when or how the issue will be resolved, but because the matter is considered a question of privilege, it takes precedence over all other House business including itemsthat fall under the Dec. 10 deadline.

Peter Van Loan, a former government House leader in the Stephen Harper government, said the supplementary estimates may not be passed by the deadline because of House conventions.

"The long-term traditions of Parliament say that grievances come before supply," he said.

The Liberals tabled the supplementary estimates on Monday. They include$21.6 billion in spending that needs Parliament's approval. That includes funds for Indigenous health and education services, defence,veteran supports, the new national dental program and refugee health-care services.

Treasury Board President Anita Anand said Tuesday if the estimates don't pass before the House rises for its six-week winter break, some government departments might be headed for a cash shortfall.

"We are OK for the next three to four weeks, but we need to make sure that money flows to those smaller departments and then ultimately the larger departments, which also fuel so much of the government's and the country's business," Anand told reporters.

Van Loan said if the funding is not approved in the next few weeks, it won't lead to the sort ofgovernment shutdown crisis the U.S. has grappled with in recent years. But it would force some departments to stretch their budgets.

"Cash management is fairly normal," he said.

"You find ways to find those funds elsewhere in existing approved budgets. So right now there areprobably bureaucrats scrambling around saying, 'OK, what programs haven't we spent money on, or what spending that we were going to do in the next three months might you simply leave for another six months?'"

Wayne Wouters, a former clerk of the PrivyCouncil and former secretary of the Treasury Board, agreed that federal departments can do some "contingency" planning if the estimates don't pass in the coming weeks.

"The supplementary estimates is normally a very small percentage of total government spending," he said.

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NDP finance critic Don Davies says the party will help the Liberals temporarily lift the gridlock in Parliament to pass a two-month GST/HST holiday on some goods, but says it won't permanently put an end to the privilege debate.

Wouters also suggested it's possible for the government to address the estimates when the House returns from the winter break.

"If they can't pass those estimates in November or December, they could always table the supplementary estimates again in February," he said.

Tyler Meredith, a former economic adviser to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, said there are ways to put the privilege debate aside and pass certain legislation.

The House unanimously agreed to pass legislation to help Jasper, Alta., begin cleaning up after this summer's wildfire while the privilege debate was ongoing. The NDP also has said it will help the Liberals pause the debateto pass legislation on the promised two-month GST holiday on some goods and services.

"We've seen evidence in this Parliament so far, in the sitting this fall, that cooler heads can prevail and responsible things can get done," Meredith said.

No opposition party has indicatedso far that it's willing to pause the privilege debate to pass the estimates.

What happens if debate continues into next year?

Meredith cautionedif a prolonged debate continues to keep the supplementary estimates on the backburner, Canadians might begin to see an impact on government operations.

"Once we get to that threshold, even if we have cash on hand, we are effectively exhausted in the ability of departments to spend money [without Parliamentary approval]," he said.

"We will be at a situation where effectively the government has to cease certain operations."

Van Loan saidif the governmentproves itselfunable to pass spending legislation, itmight have to concede that it has lost the confidence of the House and dissolve Parliament.

"Where that rubber hits the road is when you get towards the end of the fiscal year," he said.

"If the government themselves argue that it's making it impossible for the government to function, then they themselves are effectively admitting that they don't have the confidence of the House. Then perhaps they have to force an election."

Opposition days still in the hopper

House rules statethere must be a certain amount of opposition days designated days where opposition motions take precedence over government business by Dec. 10. There are four such days remaining in the sitting but the privilege debate prevents them from occurring.

So far this fall, the Conservatives have used their opposition days to trigger non-confidence votes in an ongoing attempt to bring down the government and force an election.

Van Loan said it's "unprecedented" for the House to beunable to hold opposition days. He said it's not clear how the House could move forward, though he suggested it's possible for the Speaker to simply decide that the opposition days need to occur during the last few days of the fall sitting.

A statement from Fergus's office also suggested the Speaker could interfere to ensure the deadlines are met.

"There does not seem to be recent precedents of a debate on question of privilege conflicting with the requirements pertaining to the end of a supply period," the statement said.

"It should be noted that, in the past, the House has at times adopted motions to govern its proceedings in relation to supply. Alternatively, the Speaker has the responsibility to decide all questions of procedure that may arise."

But in his statement in the House on Thursday, Fergus suggested that MPs should be the ones to decide how to proceed.