How a Donald Trump presidency could affect Canada

No presidential nomineetalks more about Canada than Donald Trumpalthoughit's almost always in the context ofTed Cruz's birthplace (Calgary) and whether it should disqualify the Texas senatorfrom running forpresident.

Interms of policy or bilateral relations, though,Trump has had little to say specificallyabout his northern neighbour.

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He did tell CBC's Meagan Fitzpatrick that he "loves Canada" and that, unlike his plans for Mexico, "I wouldn't build a wall on the border."

What's more, he appears to be onside with hisRepublican rivals when it comes to supporting the Keystone XL pipeline, and the oil industry in general.

Yet some of his pronouncements,particularly about trade, couldhaveramifications for Canada if he were to occupy the White House.

For example, ina 60 Minutes interview last year, Trump declared that theNorth American Free Trade Agreement is "a disaster"and that hewouldrenegotiate it if he's elected president. He also opposes the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the Barack Obama-leddeal with Pacific Rim countries, minus China, that wasrecently signed, but not ratified, by Canada.

Donald Trump: 'I love Canada'

9 years ago

Duration 0:37

Republican primary frontrunner says he would not build a wall at U.S.-Canada border

"Trump clearly is very much an isolationistwhen it comes to trade, which obviously is the most importantissue wehave with the U.S," saidDonaldAbelson,apolitical science professor at Western University and director of The Canada-U.S. Institute.

"Ifyoudo buy into the bravado and do buy into the policy pronouncements, it's all going to be about 'America first' and everyone else second and what kind of ripple effect does that have on us."

A Trump presidency"wouldcertainlyhave a huge impact on the U.S.so there's no question it wouldaffect the bilateral relationship as well," Abelson said.

"All the issues thatwe've flagged over the last number of years...will beexacerbatedshould Donald Trump somehowmake his way to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave."

A thicker border?

Abelsonalsoquestioned whetherTrump mightestablish more impediments to trade, impediments that would make itmore difficult for Canadian goods and services to cross the border.

And would hecare about violating the terms of the North American Free Trade Agreement?"He seems to be the kind of person who will shoot first and askquestions later," says Abelson.

There is also a concern that while Trump might not build literalwalls at the Canadian border, he could thicken them by calling formore border security out of fears that Canada's recentinflux of Syrian refugees could somehow poseathreat to the U.S.

He hassaid he would ban Muslims coming into the U.S. andsend back Syrian refugees."I suspectsomeonelike Trump would easily buy into the immediate post 9/11 rhetoricthat Canadawas somehowat fault for allowingsome of the hijackers to cross our bordersintothe U.S.,which was obviously incorrect," Abelson said.

Still, other observers, such aspolitical scientistBrian Bow, the director of theCentre for Foreign Policy Studies at Dalhousie University, says much ofTrump's talk on issues that could affect Canadiansis just that talk.And in that respect, he may not be that much different than past candidates.

On NAFTA, for example, both BarackObama and Hillary Clinton said during the 2008 campaign that they would renegotiate the deal, and it never happened.

"Itdoesn'tmean much at all. It's a way ofsignallingto voters 'Ican do better in terms of making everybody happy, but it's also away ofsayingI'm not bound to pastcommitments. Iwill do more for youthanmy predecessors did," Bow said.

"At this pointalmosteverybodygets thateverybody who says I'm going to renegotiate NAFTA doesn't literally mean I'm going to renegotiate NAFTA."

And while it is certainly possible there could be some tightening of the border over Canada's refugee policy, that wouldn't necessarily mean it would be laid at the feet of a Trump presidency. U.S. lawmakers have already expressed concerns that Canada is takingshortcuts while screening refugees.

"The only real differencebetweenhim and other Republican candidates is that he would be a bit more outspoken about it, or more willing to say the version that is politically incorrect and profoundly undiplomatic," says Bow.

Christopher Sands, director of the Centrefor Canadian Studies at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, said that while it is difficult to predict the outlines of a Trump presidency,given that he's laid out so few concrete policy initiatives, he believes the real estate mogul will take a business-likeapproach to Canada.

"My suspicion is that,bilaterally, Trump wouldbe the business guy he is and say 'Hey, Canada is our number one customer, Ilove Canada, great place, nice people.'"

"He's not a hard-core conservative who is going to say 'I miss Stephen Harper.'Trudeau is fine, but he'll say 'let's focus on business, let's do good deals.' And that will be his mantra."

Sands agreed that Trump'sthreats overNAFTAare mostlybluster, and that his beef is mainly with Mexico, where he has threatened to impose taxes on American companies that establish cheap-labour plants there.

"NAFTA is unpopularbecauseof Mexico, but it never has really been unpopular becauseof Canada. So my guess is Canada gets a pass."

The biggest challenge of a Trump presidency would be its unpredictability, and how some of hispolicies, like threatening to confront China over trade, might affect the economy or the dollar.

"That's the indirect way that Canada gets hit," Sandssaid. "But we'd be suffering with you."