Running from behind, Erin O'Toole gets a high-stakes chance to reintroduce himself

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For Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole, what could be a make-or-break effortto define himself in the eyes of voters starts now.

Polling suggests his party begins a summer campaign behind thegoverning Liberals, who are eyeing a majority. The numbers also show thatO'Toole, a former veterans affairs minister from a riding in the battleground Greater Toronto Area, is not particularlywell-known or popular.

It hasn't always been easy for O'Toole to get a word in edgewise since winning the Conservative leadership last August.

His leadership victory speech was deliveredin the wee hours of the morning after technical glitches delayed the leadershipresults for hours. His debut as partyleader in the House of Commons was postponed after he and his wife contracted COVID-19.

For most of the year, O'Toole like other leaders wasn't able to travel to different parts of the country. He's struggled to generate buzz against the backdrop ofa once-in-a-lifetime public health crisis and a Liberal prime minister willing to spend big to tackle it.

O'Toole: Trudeau is putting political interests first

As election speculation reached a fever pitch over thesummer, O'Toolearguedthat with Canadians worried about afourth pandemicwave andthespreading delta variant, it was no time to go to the polls. He made that argument despite the fact that his caucus membersvoted against the most recent federal budget a confidence vote that could have triggered an election.

"Now is the time to make sure that we're ready for the risks of a fourth wave," O'Toole said Tuesday in Oakville, Ont. "Health and the economic well-being of our country needs to be paramount. And I've asked Mr. Trudeau to put that first. I'm worried that the Liberals will put their political interest ahead of the national interest."

O'Toole has triedto grow the party's tent with a climate plan that includes a form of carbon pricing for consumers and by reaching out to the LGBTQ community both attemptsto head offissues that hauntedtheTories duringthe last campaign under Andrew Scheer.

But he's had to contend with people inside thattent contradicting hismessages like the grassroots party members who refused to add the statement"climate change is real" to the party'spolicy book and the62 Tory MPswhovoted against a Liberal bill to ban conversion therapy.

O'Toolehimselfvoted for the Liberal conversion therapy bill, which died in the Senate when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau dissolved Parliament.

"One of the important things for Conservatives to do before an election is to take away reasons for people not to vote for you," said longtime Conservative strategist Ken Boessenkool. "And I think Erin O'Toole has done all of that and that's to his credit."

Boessenkool, who teaches at the Max Bell School of Public Policy at McGill University, played senior roles in four electioncampaigns for Stephen Harper.

He said O'Toole has "cleared out some of the underbrush" those policyissues that keep some Canadians from voting Conservative. O'Toole is "not so far on the wrong side of the climate change debate that people use it as an excuse to vote against him," he added.

But BoessenkoolsaidO'Toole has lots of work ahead of them because it's "pretty clear (voters) don't know who the heck he is yet."

Conservative strategist Dennis Matthews saidO'Toole faces a dual challenge. "On the one hand, he's got to build his personal brand with voters, while also making the case the strong case that the Trudeau Liberals are the wrong people for what comes next," he said.

For Matthews, that means O'Toole has to "take some chances" and come out with bold policies that could cast him in a new light. The Conservatives, he said, must make themselvesrelevant in theparts of the country that are "growing and changing" the fastest suburban and exurban neighbourhoods.

As the least well-known of the "big three" national partyleaders, the pressure is on O'Toole to "get out there on his front foot and really tell the country what he's about in a big and loud way," Matthews said.

O'Tooleshould tap into parents'anxiety, strategist says

Boessenkoolsaid hethinks two things could shift the landscape for O'Toole during a campaign: the delta variant and widespread anxiety among parents of school-aged children.

If a fourth wave comes and Canadians fume at Trudeau for calling an early election, Boessenkool said,the Conservative leader could find himself benefiting from theiranger.

To appeal to those"burnt-out" parents, hesaid,O'Toole will firstneed to presenta substantial childcare policy that can"neutralize" what the Liberals are doing. Trudeau's government has signed agreements with multipleprovincesthis summer to bring childcare costs to $10aday within five years.

Boessenkoolsaid hethinksO'Toole also has anopportunity to unveil ideas that show he understands the anxiety and stress felt by parents who have struggled through a brutal period.

He saidan "emergency infrastructure program throwing a billion dollars at creating better ventilation in schools" could show thatO'Toole grasps the concerns of parents and play well with women with children a big pool of swing voters.

"If Conservatives just run on economic issues, that's not going to do it. They can't just be the party of fiscal conservatism and lower taxes and jobs and the economy," Boessenkool said. "They've got to speak to the social anxieties that families are feeling."

While Conservatives typicallycan count on the support of roughly 30 per cent of the country at the start of a campaign, Matthews saidthey need to build a strongerbase of support.

"This isn't ... adding little bricks on top here," he said. "This is something bigger."

Watch: O'Toole saysCanada should consider boycotting 2022 Beijing Olympics

Conservative leader says Canada should consider boycotting 2022 Beijing Olympics

3 years ago

Duration 1:31

Conservative leader Erin O'Toole says Canada should consider boycotting the 2022 Beijing Olympics after Chinese courts upheld the death sentence for Robert Schellenberg on charges of drug smuggling.

Andrew Enns, executive vice-president of the polling firmLeger, said itspolling shows the Conservatives have"pretty much capped out at 30 per cent" of the popular vote.

"It's not terrible but if they end up with 30 per cent, that probably means a majority for the Liberals," Enns told CBC.

O'Toole remains a mystery to voters, Enns said. "Our data shows probably close to 50 per cent of Canadians couldn't name him if you asked who the leader was," he said.

He added there may be anupside for O'Tooleto going into the campaign as a relative unknown, since "there will be a lot of voters who will be seeing him and hearing about him for the first time" and who might be impressed if he performs better than expected.

Ennssaid he thinks Tories are still struggling with a "party brand perception" that wasn't helped by the conversion therapy debate. But he added thatO'Toole's climate plan could blunt his rivals'claimsthat the party doesn't take the issue seriously which couldmake Conservativecandidates more competitive in GTA ridings likeMississauga and Brampton thatthe party was able to win in 2011.

Ennssaid he isn'tconvinced thatnewer, smaller parties on the right will badly hurt O'Toole's Conservatives. He said he doesn't expect the People's Party to be a major force nationally. The new Maverick Party running candidates in Western Canada will cause "consternation" for the Conservativesand could lead tovote-splitting that might help Liberals, he said, but the Tories are unlikely to lose "bedrock conservative seats" out West.

NDP would not prop up aTory minority

Another major challenge for O'Toole is the fact that he might need a sweeping victory to get a chance to govern at all. Singhalready hassaid the NDP would not prop up the Conservatives if they win a minority.

"When you're running from behind, you've got to have a big vision, and you've got to have some big ambitions and really swing for it," Matthews said. "There's no path to power here for Erin O'Toole to just add a couple of seats. He's got to make a big swing and aim for a majority government."

Asked whether theConservatives could gain ground bycritiquingthe government's handling of the pandemic including itsearly struggles to acquirevaccines Matthews saidthat most elections are about the future.

Boessenkool said many Canadians have a "hangover of happiness" fromthe federal pandemic supports that helped families and businesses stay afloat. O'Toole, on the other hand,risks being tethered to Conservative premiers who are seenby some as having mishandled the pandemic.

"If I was in the Liberal campaign, I'd be more likely to run that Erin O'Toole equals Doug Ford, equals Jason Kenney, than I would Erin O'Toole is a buffoon at the front of a fake fighter jet," he said. (O'Toole served as a captain in the Royal Canadian Air Force and is a former Sea King helicopter navigator.)

While he may be starting from behind,both strategists say it's too early to count O'Toole out.

The Tory leader is a great communicator and an easy guy to like when you get to know him, Matthews said."When people start taking a look, there's a lot to like there," he said, adding that Liberals should avoidunderestimating him.