What the federal Tories can learn from Doug Ford's big Ontario win

Federal Conservatives could learn some lessons from how Doug Ford led the Progressive Conservatives to re-election in Ontario last week, but they may not be able to replicate his playbook, election analysts say.

"I think there are lessons, particularly in the [Greater Toronto Area]for the federal Conservatives to learn," said Duane Bratt, a political science professor at Mount Royal University in Calgary.

"After all, Ford won a hell of a lot of seats in Toronto and in the GTA, something that the federal Conservatives haven't been able to do in multiple election cycles."

The federal Conservatives are in the midst of a leadership campaign and will name a new leader in Ottawa on Sept. 10.

The party always performs well in rural Ontario. Butsince Justin Trudeau became prime minister, it has been largely shut out from vote-rich Toronto and the Greater Toronto Area a politically coveted ring of surrounding suburban communities, also known as the 905 area for its area code, which includes citiessuch as Brampton andMississauga.

Yet on Thursday night, Ford's PC's swept through the GTA, with a strong showing in Toronto as well. The contest includes former Quebec premier Jean Charest, Brampton Mayor Patrick Brown, Conservative MP PierrePoilievre, MPs Scott Aitchison and Leslyn Lewis, and Ontario MPPRoman Baber.

Bratt suggested that thatpath to electoral success is not through pursuingan ideological campaign.

'Pragmatic leader'

"The federal Conservatives don't need to win Alberta. They need to win Ontario. And so I think the playbook to look at isDoug Ford and being a pragmatic leader," he said.

"That's the challenge that we're seeing in the federal campaign where both Charest and Brown are talking about broadening the Conservative base andPierre Poilievreis focused solely on that base.

"And then how do you make that pivot? Ford made that pivot."

Michael Diamond, who worked on Ford's leadership campaign as well as federal Conservative general election campaigns, said there was a "huge lesson" for Tory leadership candidates from Ford's win about "growing beyond your historical confines."

"Turning enemies into friends without turning friends into enemies is what Doug Ford did," Diamond told The Canadian Press. "By reaching out and making inroads and engaging in dialogue, Ford attracted a new demographic to the party."

Diamond said the Progressive Conservative premier's appeal to the labour movement and his endorsement by trade unions made crucial inroads into the NDP's traditional working-class base. It'sa strategy leadership contenders could mirror to grow Tory support federally, he said.

But Jamie Ellerton, a public relations strategist at Conaptus, who is alsomanaging the federal leadership campaign for MP Scott Aitchison, suggested comparisons to a general election and internal party race aren't so simple.

It's agreater challenge for federal politicians to have a vision that will speak to each region in the country uniquely to their circumstances, while at the same time offering a bigger pictureof what Canada can be, he said.

And when it comes to a leadership race, "ultimately you're talking to kind of a different group of people"a very small percentage of thepopulationwho actually belong to a political party, he said.

Still, Diamond suggested there are some takeaways from Ford's campaign, including his abilityto reach beyond traditional supporters.

"I think one of the things you saw Doug Ford successfully do over the past four years forhis re-election campaign was speak to a broader subset of the population that goes outside of traditional Conservative voters [and]brought them into the fold," he said.

WATCH | Doug Ford's victory speech:

Doug Ford's victory speech

2 years ago

Duration 11:16

Ontario PC Leader Doug Ford speaks to supporters after winning a decisive second majority.

Ellerton said Ford is constantly talking "across the aisle,"over the heads of his political rivals tospeakto voters directly.

"I think if you look at how thattranslates to federal politics, I think there's lessons to kind of look at what that approach has done," he said. "I think that very much is a blueprint for how the Canadian Conservative Party could be successful."

Not enough to scream at Trudeau

Ellerton said the federal Conservatives need to present a more positive messageon what they can offer voters,as Ford did during his campaign, projecting confidence, while focusing on what the PCs will do to get government working for Ontarians.

"I think Conservatives need to be offering a positive iteration of what conservatism can do for the country and how it's going to make the lives of all Canadians better," he said."It cannot be the party that simply screams atJustin Trudeau and constantly wants to denigrate the prime minister."

But Kate Harrison, vice-chair of public affairs firm Summa Strategies, cautioned against taking too many lessons fromFord's election campaign and Thursday's victory.

Ford faced a particularly weak opposition, she said, andan apathetic electorate. Fewer than half of eligible voters cast ballots.

She said she didn'tagree with the idea that the federal Conservatives need to start behaving and acting like Ford as far as his "small-Ppopulist, not ideologically conservative approach to things."

"I'm not sure that that is necessarily something that's needed towin the country," she said. "I think thatyou can do a pretty effective job of drawing contrast on key outlooks and visions for the country compared to your opposition under a partisan banner and still be successful."

Authenticity key

Harrison suggested that a leader's authenticity may be key. That one of the problems with former federal Conservative leader Erin O'Toole, who was accused of portraying himself more as a moderate during the election, compared to when he ran for leadership, she said.

No one would question that the ideas being put out by Poilievre, considered the front runner in the leadership race,are rooted in fundamental conservative ideology, Harrisonsaid.

"Will voters in turn reward that because they don't think that there's necessarily a hidden agenda there?" she asked.

"Doug Fordthe authenticity factor is very high. He's generally viewed as quite accessible, folksy, et cetera," she said.

"Rarely has [Poilievre] been kind of caught up in somebody accusing him of not saying or doing something different than what he actually believes. How much do voters value that authenticity versus the actual policies that are in the mix?"

Ford's folksy approach that appeals to many votersmay also be hard for the federal Conservative leadership contenders toreplicate, analysts say.

"Looking at especially Pierre [Poilievre] , he is taking a dramatically different approach to a Doug Ford," Bratt said.

"I don't know if they can copy Ford. I mean, there's a certain 'ordinary person that is there' that Jean Charestand Patrick Brown don't have either."