Greens face big challenges as COVID-19 transforms the political landscape

The Green Party missed out on a golden opportunity in the 2019 federal election. TheCOVID-19 pandemic might rob it of another opportunity in 2020.

Poised for a historic breakthrough at times running third in national polling, ahead of the New Democrats the Greens made only modest gains in the last election. The party won just one more seat than it had going into the vote and increased its share of ballots cast to just 6.5 per cent, still lower than its best result in the 2008 election.

Now, with support for the federal Greens and their provincial cousins either stagnating or dropping as Canadians shift their concerns away from climate change toward the novelcoronaviruspandemicand the economy it is gutting, the party faces significant challenges ahead.

Wednesday at 9 PM ET marks the deadline for nominations for the Green leadership race. There are seven candidates officially in the running now:AmitaKuttner,DimitriLascaris, DavidMerner, Glen Murray,AnnamiePaul, DylanPerceval-Maxwell andMeryam Haddad.

Murray, a former Ontario Liberal cabinet minister, is the only candidate with elected experience, though all of the others have run for office under the Green Party banner at least once.

The candidates have until September to meet all eligibility requirements. The race is scheduled to conclude in October.

At the outset, the contest provided the Greens with an opportunity for renewal. Elizabeth May, who announced her resignation as leader in November, had been at the head of the party since 2006. But the pandemic has made it more difficult for the campaign to gain any traction.

It also hastaken a toll on support for Green parties at both the federal and provincial levels.

Polls by theAngus Reid InstituteandLgerpublished this week recorded national Green support at between five and seven per cent, virtually unchanged from where it was on election night. In British Columbia and Atlantic Canada, where the party holds its three seats, support was lower than it wasin October.

The B.C. Green Party which becamethe first Green Party in Canada to win multiple seats in an election when it took three in 2017 had to postponeitsown leadership race due to the pandemic. Whilepolls suggestthe party'ssupport is no higher than it was three years ago, the B.C. New Democrats under Premier JohnHorganhave opened up a wide lead over the B.C. Liberals;Horgan'shandling of the pandemic is gettinghigh marks from BritishColumbians.

As partisanship drops, so does Maritime Green support

He's not the only premier to experiencea boost in support in recent weeks. Most premiers have in part because the crisis has encouraged many of them to put partisanship aside and work collaboratively with other parties.

The desire for that kind of politics helped the Greens in New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island make their big breakthroughs in the 2018 and 2019 elections in these provinces.But the pandemic seems to be sapping one source of the Greens' political appeal by encouraging thegoverning parties to take a more cooperative, less partisan approach.

In New Brunswick, the latest Narrative Research pollfound BlaineHiggs'sProgressive Conservatives leading with 48 per cent support, while the Greens trailed in third with 15 per cent. That is a drop of five percentage points for the New Brunswick Greens since February and those arethe kind of numbers that would giveHiggsthe majority government he was unable to win in 2018.

The poll found 41 per cent of NewBrunswickerschoosingHiggsas their preferred premier, an increase of 15 points since February. Green Leader David Coon fell four points to 14 per cent over that time.

In Prince Edward Island, where PeterBevan-Baker's Greens form the Official Opposition in a minority legislature, Dennis King's governing PCs have surged nine points since February to 54 per cent support. TheGreens dropped six points to 22 per cent, putting them in a tie with the Liberals.

While King jumped 15 points to 53 per cent as Islanders' preferred premier,Bevan-Baker fell 10 points to 21 per cent.

Though it could be a momentary blip for the governing Tories in these two provinces (crisis-induced spikes in support don't always last),it shouldworrythe Greens that they appear to have taken a step backin two provinces that once showed great promise for them.

COVID-19 dwarfing climate change as an issue

But therealexistential issue for the Greens might be the impact the pandemic has on Canadians' concerns about climate change.

At the beginning of the year,NanosResearch found that the environment wasbeingcited by 21 per cent of Canadians as the most important issue of national concern. The economy trailed in second with 15 per cent.

COVID-19 has completely dwarfed these issues;50 per cent of those polled byNanosin April cited the pandemic as the most pressing issue facing the country. Ithas since dropped down to 33 per cent, though that still makes it the top issue of concern.

The pandemic's surge as a political issuehas come at the expense of the environment, which is now listed by eight per cent of Canadians as the most important issue facing the country. But while the environment has lagged, concerns about the economyhaveincreased it is now cited by 23 per centas the top issue.

It is possible that as concern overCOVID-19 recedes (which may not happen soon, given the threat ofa second wave in the fall), the environment will rise again as an issue. But the damage the pandemic has done to the economy makes itmore likely that most Canadians will befocused on economic mattersin the short- to medium-term.

The longer-term picture is harder to forecast. The last time the environment was the top issuein pollingwas in the mid-2000s, before the financial crash in 2008 pushedit to the backburner again. It took another decade for the environment to re-emerge as the top issue of concern for Canadians.

Asurvey by Abacus Data for Clean Energy Canadaoffered little clarityabout the likely longer-term impact of the pandemic on public opinion.The poll foundthat 32 per cent of respondentsagreed that the pandemic had led them to believe that the focus should be on the economy and health care rather than climate change. But an equal number said it made them more convinced thatCanadians can and shouldmake changes to how we live and work to fight climate change.

It all leaves the Greens and the six leadership candidatesin a difficult spot. The progress the Greens have made over the last few years has been built primarilyon two pillars: growing concern about climate change and fatigue with the old way of doing politics.

But the pandemic has shifted people's priorities and demonstrated that traditional parties can put partisanship aside. Suddenly, those pillars look a lot less sturdy.