The Pollcast: Will U.K. pollsters get it right? - Action News
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PoliticsPODCAST

The Pollcast: Will U.K. pollsters get it right?

In the run-up to Thursday's election in the U.K., host ric Grenier is joined by David Coletto of Abacus Data to discuss what British pollsters are doing to avoid past mistakes.

Host ric Grenier is joined by David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data

Theresa May is hoping to expand her majority in the United Kingdom's general election on Thursday. (Reuters / Darren Staples)

The CBCPollcast, hosted by CBC poll analyst ric Grenier, explores the world of electoralpolitics,political polls and the trends they reveal.


After missing the call in the United Kingdom's last general election in 2015, British pollsters have adopted new approaches to measure voting intentions in the run-up to Thursday's election.

But as pollsters make adjustments to estimate the make-up of the voting population on Thursday, a dizzying number of scenarios have emerged from their numbers, ranging anywhere from a Conservative majority of historic proportions to another hung parliament.

In the context of the upcoming and likely difficult negotiations over the exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union, the repercussions of the election could be significant.

Theresa May called a snap election for June 8 when she was enjoying a wide lead over her Labour rivals. She called for a strong majority to give her a solid mandate for the Brexit negotiations. HerConservatives had 330 seats in the House of Commons just above the 326-mark needed for a majority government.

But some of the final polls suggest thegoal of a substantially enlarged majority mightbe out of her grasp. Are those numbers trustworthy?

In 2015, the polls pegged the Conservatives and Labour neck-and-neck, missing the Tories' actual six-point margin of victory. In response, pollsters are now trying different methods to estimate likely turnout and ensure their samples are representative.

But in trying to avoid the mistakes of the past, are pollsters about to make entirely new mistakes?

To discuss what pollsters are doing in the U.K. and whether there are any lessons to be drawn for Canadian pollsters Pollcast host ric Grenier is joined by David Coletto of Abacus Data.

Listen to the full discussion above or subscribe to the CBCPollcast and listen to past episodes.

Follow ric Grenierand David Colettoon Twitter.