NDP, Liberals put contrasting electoral ambitions on display in caucus gatherings

The Liberals andNew Democrats are holding their national caucus meetings indifferent parts of the country this week and their choices of venue suggest that one party could beplaying small ball with its plans for the coming federal election, whilethe other is swinging for the fences.

Beginning on Tuesday, the Liberals will hold their national caucus meeting in Saskatoon as the New Democrats gatherin Surrey, B.C. for theirs.

Both parties appear to be pushing for gains in these two cities; theNew Democrats hold no seats in Surrey and the Liberals aren't represented in Saskatoon. But if they're both playing offence, they're going about it in very different ways.

Surrey is a city where New Democratshave enjoyed some success before. Just across the Fraser River, Burnaby and New Westminster have been painted orange for more than a decade.

In Saskatoon, however, the federal Liberals haven't won a seat in 25 years.

These location choices suggestthat the two parties are taking different approaches to the 2019 election. The NDP struggling both financially and in the pollsand grappling with internal issues might be setting its sights on low-hanging fruit. The Liberals, meanwhile, might betargeting regions of the country where the party traditionally hasn't had much success.

What's behind the location choices for Liberal, NDP caucus meetings?

6 years ago

Duration 4:40

Polls analyst Eric Grenier looks at federal caucus gatherings, and the Quebec provincial election.

This isn't the first time Prime Minister Justin Trudeau Liberals' have put their lofty electoral ambitions on publicdisplay. The party has held caucus meetings before in regions of the country where they have a limited record of electoral success: Saguenay, Que. in 2016 and Kelowna, B.C. lastyear. This past summer's cabinet retreat was held on Vancouver Island, where the party has been shut out for the last two elections.

But if the Liberals are really hoping to make a breakthrough in Saskatoon next year, the party is lifting its ambitions to dizzying new heights.

Liberals gained, but still third in Saskatoon in 2015

Saskatchewan has not been friendly territory for the Liberal Party. The only seat the Liberals have won in the province over the last five elections has been Ralph Goodale's Regina-area riding, which he has held since 1993. In 2011, the party's support in Saskatchewan registered just 8.6 per cent its worst showing in any province in the country.

The Liberals did better in 2015 in the popular vote, capturing 23.9 per cent of ballots cast in Saskatchewan. It still wasn't enough to getthem a second seat.

Theparty also experienced significant gains in Saskatoon, but they still remained in third position in the city and seatless. The electoral boundaries in Saskatoon shifted dramatically before the 2015 election, but the party averaged about seven per cent of the vote in the area in 2011. In 2015, the Liberals captured 25 per cent of the vote in Saskatoon's three ridings more than tripling their vote share but remaining well behind the other parties.

The Conservatives won two seats and 39 per cent of the vote in Saskatoon in 2015, while theNDPtook one seat and33 per cent of the vote.

The party might believe it has an opening if the New Democrats bleed more support to the Liberals in urban centres like Saskatoon and perhaps if Maxime Bernier's upstart party steals some votes away from the Conservatives. But if the Liberals were making a list oftheir potential gains in the 2019 election, no riding in Saskatoon would rank very highly. The last time the party won a seat in the city was in1993.

Can Singh help deliver Surrey to the NDP?

There are few regions in the country where the New Democrats are in a good positionto make gains. As things stand, limiting losses might be a more realistic objective for the party. But if the NDP is going to make gains anywhere, few places look as good to them as Surrey.

The city played an important role in Jagmeet Singh's victory in the party's leadership race last year. About 14 per cent of the money he raised came from Surrey residents. One-third of Surrey's population is South Asian, according to the 2016 census. That share of the population increases to 61 per cent in the riding of SurreyNewton.

Singh's offer to members was that he could expand the party's base into new areas of the country: the Greater Toronto Area, where Singh was a provincial legislator, but also Greater Vancouver.

The New Democrats don't currently hold any seats in Surrey, but in 2011 the party won two of the four ridings then in the city. The B.C. New Democrats also won most of the city's seats in the 2017 provincial election, making gains at the expense of the B.C. Liberals.

Still, Singh has a challenge ahead of him. In 2015, the NDPfinished second in only two of the five seats Surrey now hasSurrey-Newton and Surrey Centre and was well behind the Liberals in both ridings. Polls also show the New Democrats are in a worse position in British Columbia than they were three years ago.

So the NDP might need to shore up what it already holds in B.C. first including the ridings next doorin the cities of Burnaby, New Westminster and Coquitlam. These includethe riding of Burnaby South, where Singh will be running for a seat in the House of Commons in an upcoming byelection that is by no means a slam-dunk.

A good election for the NDP would see the party holding these seats and winning a few more in places such as Surrey. But a riding like Surrey Centre might be only the 50thsafest seat in an expandedNDP caucus. The party would need to be winning further afieldto take a serious run at government.

Meanwhile, if the Liberals start winning in places like Saskatoon, they might startwinning in a lot of placesthey haven't won before and might be on track for 200 or more seats. That doesn't seem likely based on their current standingin the polls.

But you can't say the party isn't thinking big something perhaps the NDP can't yet afford to do.