Harper, EU leaders celebrate trade deal they haven't sealed

Prime Minister Stephen Harper may beall smiles during his summit with European Union leaders in Ottawa Friday, as they celebrate the end of five years of tough trade negotiations on the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement.

But Canadians those who like CETA, and those who don't are already shifting gears fortheroughroad to ratification that loomsin Europe.

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Herman VanRompuy, the president of the European Council (representingthe heads of state or government for Europe's member countries), and Jose ManuelBarroso, the president of the European Commission (the EU's executive branch), are in Ottawa to discuss shared concerns, including the crisis in Syria and Iraq.

But it's the trade deal, touted as a boost to ailing economies, that's meant to provide the good news.

If the smiles are forced, it may be because thepressure's on.

Barroso's Canadian hosts areeager to put pen to paper, pleased with getting Europe to bend on 98 per cent of the tariff lines on Canadian goods.

Within two years, Canadians want to be selling Europe's 500 million consumers more seafood, beef and pork. And they didn't have to dismantle the milk marketing boards to get there.

But this is Barroso's farewell tour. His presidency ends within days. And his successor, Jean-ClaudeJuncker,sees CETA somewhat differently.

Harper andBarrosoannounced the end of negotiations in August. The final text of the deal was quietly posted on the Canadian government's website Friday morning.

The European Council and the EU parliament must approve the deal.

Barrosodoesn't believe the EU's 28 member states need to vote to ratify it in their own parliaments, but Junckerhas indicated it could be put to a vote in each country.

In that case, a defeat anywhere could scuttle it.

Junckeralso is open to sacrificingCETA'scontroversial investor-state dispute settlement provisions, which are meant to protect companiesfrom arbitrary government decisions by giving them a way to challenge laws or regulations and sue for damages.

Germany offside?

On Thursday, Germany's deputy chancellorSigmarGabriel told the German parliament that "it's completely clear that we reject these investment protection agreements."

"I am certain that the debate is not over by a long shot," AngelaMerkel'scoalition partnersaid.

Powerful German players, including the labour movement that supportsGabriel's Social Democratic Party, want these"private courts" out of the deal in return for their support.

International Trade Minister Ed Fast said Thursday he'd had no indication from the German government it wouldn't supportCETA.

I think we have a fair expectation that we can derail the ratification process in the EU parliament- Brent Patterson, Council of Canadians

"We've made it very clear that this is an agreement that was negotiated within existing mandates given to negotiators from both sides," he said. "We strongly support investor state dispute settlement rules."

KurtHbner, from the University of British Columbia's School of European Studies, thinks the Canadian deal was underestimated in Europe until people realizedit paved the way for an even bigger deal with the U.S.

"CETAis the victim,"Hbnersaid.

"It shouldn't be seen as a threat to democracy," he said, but an overly centralized process hascreatedan "underinformed" political climate.

While some applaud the way provinces and stakeholders were consulted during negotiations, civil society groups on both sides of the Atlantic have been troubled.

The Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives studied a leaked version of the agreement and concluded the deal is "unbalanced, favouring large multinational corporations at the expense of consumers, the environment and the greater public interest."

A protest organized by five groups, including the Council of Canadians and Campact Germany, will greet the EU leaders on Parliament Hill Friday.

But with the opposition NDPand Liberals expressing conditional support for the deal, ratification appears certain in Canada. Provincial premiers gave their agreement in principle earlier in the talks and all provincial cabinetsas well as Quebec's National Assembly, which will hold its own vote, are expected to sign off.

That's why opponents of the deal went abroad.

Odds of defeat 'pretty good'

The Council of Canadians started campaigning in Europe in 2010. It has crunched the numbers in Brussels and thinks the vote could come down to as few as 12 of the 751 parliamentarians.

"I think we have a fair expectation that we can derail the ratification process in the EU parliament," says Brent Patterson, political director for the group.

This is the start of something, not the end of it.- John Manley, Canadian Council for Chief Executives

"If we've got a year or two, as U.S. negotiations heat up and public awareness continues to build, our odds are looking pretty good," he says.

The worst-case scenario, thinksCarletonUniversity'sCrinaViju, is the deal won't be approved by ministers at the European Council because of concerns like Germany's.

Canada would have to re-open talks or walk away.

"Even Prime Minister Stephen Harper must have recognized that they talked too much, too early that this deal was done. It wasn't done at all, obviously,"Vijusays.

Businesscoalitionlaunching

After Friday's summit, the leaders head to Toronto for an event withseveral hundred Canadian and European business representatives.

"This is the start of something, not the end of it," says former Liberal cabinet minister John Manley, who now heads the Canadian Council for Chief Executives.

He wants to see Canadian companies get a head start on the U.S. for access to the European market, so on Friday, he's helping launch the Coalition for Canada-Europe Trade. Manley says Canada has work to do.

"If we want to bring this thing home we have to be all over it," he says.

Still, he's optimistic the Europeans will close this deal to set a precedent.

"If they think we're hard bargainers, they should see the Americans."