House of Commons is out, but election campaigns are brewing

With the House of Commons nowin summer recess, politicians from all parties will be outhitting the barbecue circuit, and most importantly, honing their messages before they return in the fall, when the unofficial election campaign will begin in earnest.

True, the election is not set until the fall of 2015, but all parties will be in full-force election modeover the course of thatyear, crafting their political ads,building up their campaign war chests and trying to attract possible star candidates.

The Liberals have already snared the likes of Andrew Leslie,the former head of the Canadian army, and distinguished author and journalistChrystiaFreeland.But they also have an advantage over the Tories. With Trudeau having a realistic shot of at least being in a minority situation, the Liberal leader can entice higher-profile candidates into the party fold with promises of cabinet posts, saidPeterGraefe, an associateprofessor ofpolitical science atMcMasterUniversity

"The Liberals are in a nice spot in that they have a weak bench but a good shot of forming government, he said. So if you were someone who had a high-profilecareerand thinking about getting into politics,the path is kind of open, Graefe said.

TheNDP, which could maintain official oppositionstatus,will alsobe in a positionto attract a higher grade of candidate, he said.

Money, of course, willalso bekey, and fundraising a non-stop endeavour will kick up a notch to ensure the parties are flush with cash by the time the campaign begins.

Before Prime Minister Jean Chrtien exitedthe political scene in 2003, he left the Conservatives with an unintended gift new campaign finance rules that wouldbancorporate donations. The Tories, who traditionally relied mostly on personal donations, adapted well to the new rules. It alsogave them an advantage over the Liberals, who had tostruggleto raise funds.

Tories fundraising champs, but Liberals gaining

But that advantage hasnarrowed, as the Liberalsunder Trudeauseem to have found their fundraising footing.

Reports for the first quarter of 2014, filed with Elections Canada, showed that the Tories were still the fundraising champs, taking in almost $4.6 million.

While the Liberals raised almost $3.8 million, that was more than double their take during the same period last year. As well, the number of Liberal donors was up more than 12,000 from the same period last year, while the Conservatives lost about 7,000 donors.

Meanwhile, the NDPraisedover $2.5 million, up from $1.6 million in the first quarter last year and with an increase of 3,000 donors. But the party alsofaces a $1.17 million bill from the House of Commons Board of Internal Economy that claims they must pay that money backfor ineligible mass mailouts.

"The Conservatives and Liberals will have pretty full war chests," Graefe said. "TheNDP will havethe capacity to run a full campaign but theyre obviously a bit less financially prepared. This latest issue with the Board of Internal Economy is not goingto help their situation, but Im sure they will spin it into afundraising opportunity as all parties do these days,or push it past the next election."

Bernie Morton, Canadian editoratCampaigns & Elections Magazine and former campaign manager for Peter Kent,saidthe Liberals, who are still forming their politicalmessaging,will have toraise more money than the Conservatives, who have basically narrowed down what their messaging is going to be.

[The Conservatives] are not going to have to spend as much money on focus group testing, as much money on the creation of political ads and trying them and see what sticks," he said.

"The Liberals will likely have to spend more money to try and get it right.Meaning they will need more," he said.

Harper's story won't change much

Asfor what thatConservative messaging will be, SandfordBorins, professor of strategic managementat the Universityof Toronto, said Prime Minister Stephen Harper's story isn't going to change much.

"Its going be 'the same wise economic management.' The twist this time will be wiseeconomic management and weve eliminated the deficit, and adding to that, presumably if the economy still chugs along nice, some tax cuts.

The question is what the two opposition parties will construct in terms of their narrative.

Although Trudeau has said he wont be releasing the Liberal Party platform until2015, he's hinted he will be making a play for the progressive vote, having already taken a firm stance on abortion by stating that Liberal MPs elected in 2015 will vote along pro-choice lines.

Mostly, Trudeau will have to fend off attacks from the Conservatives, who will try to drive home the message that he is an untested leader.

"I thinkwhat Trudeau has to his advantage is hes emerged relatively unscathed from two rounds now of attack ads," Borins said."I thinkthats really important."

While Mulcair has been lauded by political pundits for his performance during question period, it's doubtful that's reached the public at large, most of whom are indifferent to the daily verbal scraps in the House of Commons.

"I don't think he's told his story," Graefe said. "I think he's been successful in increasing people's respect for him.I don't think they understand who he is or what he stands for exactly."