The government's stance on military exports to Israel is anything but clear-cut

Foreign Affairs Minister Mlanie Joly's announcement Tuesday that Canada has suspended 30 permits to export military materiel to Israel may have been meant to placatepro-Palestinian activists demanding an arms embargo. But without more transparency, it remains a political muddle.

One week out from a byelection ina previously safe Liberal seat inMontreal where New Democrats (and theirpamphlets) arepushingCanada's response to the ongoing violence in Gaza as a ballot question, Jolyproactively used herscrum at the governing caucus's retreat in Nanaimo, B.C. to rebut claims the Trudeau governmentisn't doing enough.

"Our policy has been clear," she said. "Since Jan. 8, we have not accepted any form of arms export permits to be sent to Israel."

Accepting her claim that the government's policy has been "clear" means forgettingthe messlastspringwhen a New DemocratMP introduceda Commons motion calling on Canada to "suspend all trade in military goods and technology with Israel" that had to bewatered down at the last minute so more Liberals could support it.

Activists point to the many millions of dollars in defence trade that may continueto flow Israel's way under previously approved and still-valid permits. (The most recent list, produced by Global Affairs Canada [GAC] to respond to arequest from the Commons foreign affairs committee, is available here.)

Jolytold reporters she asked her department to look into Canadian companies' existing permits.

"We are asking questions to these companies. Following that, I asked my department to look into any existing permits of arms or parts of arms that could have been sent to Israel," the ministersaid.

"Following that, I suspended this summer around 30 existing permits of Canadian companies and we are asking questions to these companies."

She did not say what her questions were.

Whichpermits are being probed?

A suspension is not a cancellation. Last spring, Jolywas among those warningthat sudden, arbitrary or politically motivatedterminationsinvite legal action by firms that hold the government responsible for their business losses. Supply chain disruptions alsocause problems for Canada's defence procurement relationships withallies.

There may be over 200valid permits to ship to Israel right now, so 30suspensionsfalls well short of the total arms embargo activist organizations not to mention 22 Liberal MPs have demanded.

It would be usefulto know if any of the companiesnow facing Joly's "questions" are amongthe Canadian manufacturers activists have targeted for protests.

The lists GAC provided to the Commons committee don't name the companies but do describethe shipments. Nearly all of the exports are components, not finished products. The most common are circuit boards andother items of hardware, like cameras used for for radar systems, surveillance and navigation.Israel has its own robust defence industry.

"Canada has not issued any permits for items destined to Israel for major conventional arms or light weapons, e.g., battle tanks, armoured combat vehicles, large calibre artillery systems, combat aircraft and unmanned combat aerial vehicles, attack helicopters, warships and missiles, missile launchers, heavy machine guns and recoilless rifles, since 1991 (the earliest year for which the Department has records),"GACdeputy ministerDavid Morrison wrote in a letter tocommittee members last spring.

"In terms of small arms, e.g. pistols, revolvers, carbines and rifles, over the past 30 years, there have only been four export permits issued under the [Export and Import Permits Act], in 2008, 2010, 2015 and 2018."

So the permits in question aren't for anything that heads straight to Gaza. That doesn't mean they aren't contributing to something that might wind up in the hands of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).

In some cases, these exports go to an Israeli company and then ship back to Canada (or another allied country) as a finished productprocurements that, given the geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and elsewhere, Canada may desperately need.

A total "arms embargo" could risk widerpolitical and economic blowback because it could cause other countries that buy Canadian defence products to re-evaluate their relationship with this country.

Enabling the U.S. to help Israel

In Nanaimo, Joly also touched on a more recent source of concern among pro-Palestinian activists.

"As for the question regarding General Dynamics, our policy is clear: we will not have any form of arms or parts of arms be sent to Gaza," she said. "How they are being sent and where they are being sent is irrelevant. We are in contact with General Dynamics."

That conversation might be tense.

AnAug. 13 news release,the U.S. Defence Security Cooperation Agency pointed to the General Dynamics facility in Quebec as the "principal contractor" on an Israeli government requestfor mortar cartridges. That seemedto flyin the face of Canada'spledgenot to equipIsrael in any new ways asthe war in Gaza rages on.

Joly's office calls theAmerican announcement not a final contract but a "tentative deal."There's been no subsequent releasefrom the agency or the company to updateits status.

In an email to CBC News on Wednesday evening, GAC spokesperson Jean-Pierre Godboutconfirmed the department is "in contact with those involved with the possible foreign military sale by the United States."

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"Global Affairs Canada does not comment on individual permits or permit applications," the email said."We have an obligation to protect confidential information about the commercial activities of individual companies."

Jolyseemed unequivocal, her departmentless so. Itleaves critics with plenty of opacity to fueltheirconcern.

Transparency by other means is also difficult. In response to a lawsuit launched by the Canadian Lawyers for International Human Rights to block military exports to Israel, four militarymanufacturersthat continued to export productsto Israel after last October's Hamas attackasked the court for confidentiality orders to keep their competitive commercial information secret.

Ignoring international law?

Godbout's email to CBC News also said that, "considering the rapidly evolving situation on the ground and the complexity of supply chains,"Canada had suspended "a number of export permits for military items destined to Israel since this summer." He didn't confirm the 30 figure.

"These suspensions are in line with Canada's robust export controls regime and will allow time to further assess the situation to ensure consistency with Canada's foreign policy objectives," Godbout wrote.

Those objectives are precisely the weapon critics wield against the Trudeau government when they call it out for hypocrisy.

The most recent letter signed by 19 civil society organizations reminds Joly of some relevant factors.

One isthe UN's Arms Trade Treaty, somethingexportpermitssupposedly help enforce. That treaty prohibits signatories like Canadafrom exporting arms if they could be used to commit series crimes under international law, including disproportionate or indiscriminate attacks.

Another is the International Court of Justice's order to halt the IDF offensive in Rafah because of a "plausible risk of genocide," as well as its advisory opinion in July that found the Israeli occupation of Palestinian territory was "unlawful." The signatories say they believecontinuing to equip Israel undermines the push fora ceasefire, which Canada says it supports.

Groups like Project Ploughshares argue the IDF has demonstrated in this conflict that it can't be trusted not to commit warcrimes. Prominent Canadian Jewish organizations, as well as the government of Israel, vigorously dispute thischaracterizationof the ongoing operations in Gaza.

Unlike the NDP and the Conservative Party a staunch supporter of Israelthe Liberal Party keeps struggling to straddle the two sides in this conflict in its policies and its politics.

Partisan pressures

A letter written by 52 Liberal staffers implored the partyto "wake up,"explicitly condemn Israel and revoke existing export permits. (As far as anyone knows, these dissidentsremain on the payroll.)

Now a free agent following his decision to terminate the confidence-and-supply deal with the Liberals a week before byelections, NDP LeaderJagmeet Singh now cites Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's failure to stop defence exports to Israel as areason for voters tobail on the Liberals.

Singh's foreign affairs critic, Heather McPherson the author of that Commons motionlast spring told CBC News at their caucus retreat in Montreal this week thatJoly's latest announcement "absolutely" does not meet her concerns.

"We've seen her lie to Canadians before," McPherson said, citing the government's decision to cancel arm sales to Saudi Arabia, only to reinstate them a few months later. "For her to take months and months and months to take action is appalling."

Both McPherson and Joly have been campaigninginLasalleEmardVerdun, a Montreal riding that even though it's not dominated by Muslim or Jewish voters now finds itself a test case for the fine line Liberals are struggling to walk on Gaza.

As Joly's scrum in Nanaimo went on, she mixed her official pronouncementas foreign minister with ahot take on the by-election odds in her hometown.

"I'm convinced wewill win," Jolysaid.