Conservatives targeting Liberal, NDP seats in northern Ontario

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre appears to be focusing on capturing seats in northern Ontario a politicallyimportantregion with a small number ofridings as polling suggests the party's support continues to grow.

In recent weeks,Poilievrehas attacked Liberal and NDP MPs in northern Ontarioin the House of Commons while his party has run ads aimed at flipping seats in the region.

"Liberal MPs in Sudbury, Thunder Bay, North Bay, Sault Ste Marie, they have starving constituents who are worried about the heat going out," Poilievre said last week in Ottawa while callingfor a carbon tax exemption for all home heating.

Poilievre also spent a week in the summer touring northern Ontario and staging rallies across the vast, underpopulated region.

"For the Conservatives to be targeting northern Ontario for seat gains is no coincidence. It's no accident," said Eric Grenier, a political analyst with TheWrit.ca.

"They do see that there are a lot of ridings there where they came pretty close last time and have good reason to believe that the message that they're bringing is going to appeal to those voters."

There are 10 federal ridings in northern Ontario. Six are held by Liberals, two are held by Conservatives and two are represented by New Democrats. But theboundaries of several of the ridingshave been redrawn and the region will drop from 10 ridings to ninewhenthe next election takes place.

The latest data from poll aggregator 338Canada suggests that if an election were held today with the current seat makeup,the Conservatives likely would win an additional five seats in the region.

Liberals might be 'lucky' to keep aseat in the region: expert

While the polling isn't specific to northern Ontario, it does offerinsights into how voters in the region are leaning.

Even two ridings held by high-profile MPs Indigenous Services Minister Patty Hajdu's seat in Thunder Bay-Superior Northand NDPMP Charlie Angus' long-held seat inTimmins-James Bay area pollinga toss-up with the Conservatives.

"Based on where the polls are, based on how the map is changing, the Liberals would be lucky to get out of northern Ontario with a single seat," Grenier said.

Which explains, Greniersaid, whyPrime Minister Justin Trudeau spent last Friday in Sault Ste. Marie, a riding currently held by Liberal MP Terry Sheehan that hasbeen won in the past byConservatives and New Democrats.

"We stepped up as a government to be the partners that this community needed," Trudeau said to an audience during a tour of a utility company there.

Grenier said the Liberals have been dropping in support throughout the countryand the Conservatives may see northern Ontario as a key target.

"Northern Ontario that is a prime example of where they think that they can defeat Liberals, but also New Democrats, and just pad their majority in areas that are probably easier for them to win than in other parts of the country," hesaid.

Northern Ontario tracking 'more conservative'

Northern Ontario mayhavejust 10 of the 338 seats in the House of Commons right now, butriding contests thereare often some of the tightest in the country and sometimes turn intothree-way races.

Coming changes to the riding boundariesmight help the Conservatives, as several Liberal-held seats will end up includingmore conservative-leaning voters, said David Tabachnick, a professor of political science at Nipissing University in North Bay, Ont.

"That change has turned Sault Ste. Marie-Algoma, the new riding there, into one that's going to be much, much more difficult for the Liberals to hold," Tabachnick said.

He said the same holdsfor Nipissing-Temiskaming, a riding held by Liberal Anthony Rota, who has announced he will not run again.

"If you look at the new communities in that riding, they do skew conservative. So that could swing things in and of itself," Tabachnick said.

The demographics of northern Ontario trackolder and poorer than the rest of the province,and the region tends to experiencehigher unemployment than southern Ontario.

Much of the region hastendedto vote Liberal or NDP in the past particularly districts with industries that require government investment, like forestry and mining, Tabachnick said.

That may be changing, he added.

"I have seen northern Ontario start to sort of track a little more Conservative," he said, pointing to the Conservatives winning the northwestern Ontario riding of Kenora in 2019.

"The Conservatives really see some weakness in a few Liberal ridings."

If the Conservatives take three difficult-to-win ridings in the region Sault Ste. Marie-Algoma, Nipissing-Temiskaming, and Nickelbelt (which surrounds Sudbury) that would be a sign of a very significant political shift change innorthern Ontario, Tabachnick said.

"It might suggest that this is part of a blue wave," he said. "That would be a domination of northern Ontario."