Conservatives would love to win more seats in Quebec but do they need to?

An electoralbreakthrough in Quebec has for decades been a goal of the modern Conservatives, who are gathering in the province's capital this weekend for the first party convention under leader Pierre Poilievre.

But with Poilievre riding high in the national polls, are gains in Quebec still a necessary part of a winning Conservative campaign?

"The fact of the matter is, if you took Quebec out of Canada ... Conservatives would win almost every single election," said Fred DeLorey, who was former CPC leader Erin O'Toole's campaign manager in 2021.

In an interview with host Catherine Cullen on CBC'sThe House, DeLorey said it would be difficult to form a government when Conservatives arecompetitive in just five or 10 ridings in Canada's second biggest province.

Since the creation of the modernConservative party under Stephen Harper, the Tories have struggled to maintain double-digit seat numbers in Quebec. The party won 10 seats in the 2021 election, mostly in the area around Quebec City.

While he said he'd still be pushing for a breakthrough, DeLoreytold host Catherine Cullen that a big gain of seats in Quebec isn't the only path to victory.

"History tells us that we don't always have to do that to win," he said. "If you go back to 2011 the last time the Conservatives won a majority government, or an election at all we did it without Quebec."

Pollster Christian Bourque agrees that, mathematically, the Conservatives may not need Quebec because of their dominance in Western Canada.

"And right now, for the first time since [Poilievre] became leader of the Conservatives, he's actually showing that he's in seat-gained territory in Ontario," the Leger executive said.

"The problem with Quebec is [it's] the difference between a minority Conservative government and a majority Conservative government."

Bourque notedthat while the Conservatives hold a commanding national lead, they remain a distant third in Quebec.

The keys to winning in Quebec

Baie-Comeau, Que., native Brian Mulroney led the Progressive Conservatives to two huge majority wins in 1984 and 1988 that saw the party nearly sweep the province.

But after the PCs were almost wiped out in 1993 with Jean Charest the last MP standing in Sherbrooke the PCs and successor Conservative Party of Canada have struggled to expand beyond their Quebec City beachhead.

Dimitri Soudas, former director of communications for Stephen Harper, said the Conservatives under Harper kept their efforts targeted at the areas around the capital.

"[Harper] went back to Quebec City during [Winter Carnival] so many times that he and Bonhomme were on a first-name basis," Soudas told Cullen.

But despite the jump to 10 seats in the 2006 election which Soudas described as historic gain under a non-Quebecois leader the party struggled to make headway.And Bourque toldThe HouseConservatives may have missed a crucial opportunity early in the Harper era.

The 2006 electionmarked the start of a softening in support for theBloc Qubcois, Bourque said. And while many thought in the lead-up to the 2008 election that the Conservatives could achieve a breakthrough in Quebec, the Harper government's decision to cut $45 million fromarts and culture programs soured that opportunity, he said.

"Cultural cuts, as they were called back then, sort of meant the end of Conservative support in the province. It sort of revived the Bloc vote," Bourque said.

"I will say to this day there were genuinely not serious cuts in culture. But we lost the communications battle and in politics, the reality is that perception is reality," Soudas said.

Bourque said that only an erosion of Bloc support could allow theConservatives to make a real breakthrough something he doesn't see happening right now.

"That's why there's this sort of stalemate right now on the Conservative numbers," he said.

WATCH | Conservative ad looks to rebrand Poilievre:

Conservatives reintroduce Pierre Poilievre with $3M ad campaign

1 year ago

Duration 1:58

The Conservative Party of Canada is reintroducing leader Pierre Poilievre to Canadians with a $3 million ad campaign that some insiders say is a move to rebrand him with a softer image.

DeLorey said it's proven to be difficult to shift Quebecers away from their comfort zone withthe Bloc. Even the endorsement of a popular premier like Francois Legault did not substantially boost Erin O'Toole's fortunes in 2021.

But Soudas argued that Poilievre has two key advantages not enjoyed by previous Conservative leaders: his francophone last name and his strong command of the language.

He also cited a major series of ads that included a French voiceover by Poilievre's wife, Anaida, who grew up in Montreal.

Soudas said he believes "Quebecers vote with their heart" and Poilievre has a shot to make a serious dent if he is able to connect with Quebecers.

"He has all the ingredients to win more than 10 seats in the province of Quebec."

WATCH |At Issue | Should the Liberals be worried about Poilievre's momentum?

At Issue | Should the Liberals be worried about Poilievres momentum?

1 year ago

Duration 22:35

The end of summer brought with it a new political narrative, with increasing pressure on the Liberal government to help Canadians through an affordability crisis something the Conservatives have been successfully leveraging. How concerned should the Liberals be about this shifting momentum?