Some MPs are leaving interesting races behind them as they move into retirement

With the country marching towardan anticipated fall federal election, a number ofinteresting contests are shaping up in some of the almosttwo dozen ridings wheresitting MPshaveannounced their retirement from politics.

Nine LiberalMPshave said theywill not be running again. The Conservatives are losing seven incumbents to retirement, three NDP MPs are bowing out and theBloc is losingtwo. Independent MP Jody Wilson-Raybouldannounced a month ago she won't be running again.

Some of these ridings are considered safe seats for theirincumbents'parties. Others promisetight races between two or more parties.

"When a prominent long-time incumbent has held a seat and then retires, a party would have a little bit of natural nervousness because they would always look at that seat as a lock," said Conservative strategist Tim Powers.

Case in point:the Newfoundland riding of St. John's East, currently held by the NDP's Jack Harris.

Harris won three of the last four races in that riding; he lost by a margin of just1.4 per cent in 2015 before coming back towin in 2019 by13.7 per cent.

The seat was the first to see a Liberal nomination contestfor the coming election.Prime Minister Justin Trudeau visitedSt. John's the week of July 26 part ofwhat a Liberal official told CBCNewswas an effort to shore up support in the area.

Anne McGrath, the NDP's national director,said the party regretslosinga strong candidate and colleague like Harris.

"It is a loss for sure. But it also opens up opportunities for other folks who have been active in their community or active in the party to step up and to potentially become candidates," shesaid."You have to fight hard for every inch of support for every riding.'

Another competitive seat losing its incumbentis Ottawa Centre, where cabinet minister Catherine McKenna has announced she will not be running again. While she won the seat by a comfortablemargin of 19.6 per cent in 2019, she squeaked by on a 4.1 per cent marginin 2015.

McGrath said that, with no incumbent and with the NDPrepresenting the area atthe provincial level,the party likes its chances inOttawa Centre.

Ottawa Centre has a history of flipping between the two parties. The Liberals heldthe seat from 1988 to 2003;the NDPhad itfrom 2004 to 2015.

"If somebody has been an MP for two or three terms and they do well and they get resoundingly supported, you've gotten used to putting that in your win column," Powers said. "So when you make a change and that MP steps down, then there's a little bit of uncertainty about it."

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The New Brunswick riding of MiramichiGrand Lake and the Quebec riding of Trois-Rivires are two more districts that promise tight races.

The Liberals won MiramichiGrand Lake by a margin of just 1.1 per cent of the vote in 2019, a steep decline from its 13 per cent margin in 2015. The ridinghasbeen held bythe Conservatives (2008 to 2015) andthe Liberals(1993 to 2008 and from2015 on).

The 2019 electionsawa very tight raceinMiramichiGrand Lake between the Liberals and theConservatives,who split the vote there with36.6 per cent and 35.7 per cent, respectively.The Greens came a distant third at 11.3 per cent.Liberal MP Pat Finnigan'scomingretirement puts a question mark over this riding.

Trois-Riviresiscurrently held by the Bloc Qubcois;it won the riding back from the NDP in 2019 bya margin of just 2.4 per cent over the second-place Liberal candidate. It's alsoshaping up to bea close three-way race. The NDP won the riding from the Bloc in 2011 and barely helditin 2015 by a margin of just 1.6 per cent.

The riding has been held in the pastbyboththe Conservatives and the Liberals. In 2019, the race was a three-way contestbetween the Bloc (with 28.5per cent of the vote), the Liberals (26.1 percent) and the Conservatives (25.2 per cent).

Another interesting three-way race could take place in B.C.'s Vancouver Granville riding, now thatWilson-Raybould has announced she plansto retire.

Wilson-Raybould won the seat as a Liberal in 2015 by a margin of 17.1 per cent.After Trudeau removed herfrom caucus in 2019,she ran as an Independent and took the riding again by amuch tighter 6 per cent margin.

The 2015 election also sawstrong performances in Vancouver Granvillefrom the NDP (26.6 per cent of the vote)and the Conservatives(26.1 per cent of the vote).

Not every retiring MP is leaving a battle behind.

Halifax West currently held by former Speaker and Liberal MP Geoff Reganand Moose Jaw Lake Centre Lanigan, currently held by the Conservatives' Tom Lukiwski, are shaping todeliver much the same results they did in years past after their incumbents retire with the coming election.

Regan has served uninterrupted asthe MP for Halifax West since 2000. He wonthe seat in 2019 by a margin of 30.2 per cent, down from his margin of 53 per cent in 2015. Moose Jaw Lake Centre Laniganhas remained inConservative handssince its creation in 2015;Lukiwskiwon it by a54.1 per cent margin in 2019.

Liberaland Conservative party officialssay they don't expect those ridings to change hands this time. And while it's likely that theP.E.I. riding of Malpeque a riding represented by LiberalMPWayne Easter that's been in theLiberal columnsince 1988 will stay Liberal this year, it's not a certainty.

In 2019, Easter won the riding with a margin of 14.9 per cent, taking 41.4 per cent of the vote to the Greens' 26.5 percent and the Conservatives' 25.6 per cent. With Green Party Leader Annamie Paul nowengaging in open conflict withparty brass, the Greens'pollnumbers have sagged and it's not clearwhere disgruntled Green supporters in the riding mightsendtheir votes.

"Historically, it probably has a better chance of being a Liberal seat than not, given Prince Edward Island's, not unlike Newfoundland and Labrador's, more established tendency to voteLiberal," said Powers, adding that "...an individual candidate's personalitycan also be an important factor in influencing outcomes, particularly in Atlantic Canada."

Powers said that the Greens arewell established in P.E.I. now, having formedthe Official Opposition in the province's legislature, and the Greens' troubles at the national levelmight notaffecttheir prospectsin P.E.I.

Anna Keenan, theGreen candidate in Malpeque, said Easter's departure changes things on the ground in the riding.

"It was quite exciting for a lot of Green supporters when they heard that Wayne was not going to be running again," Keenan told CBC News. "My response is a little bit more cautious. I think this definitely makes the race more exciting and higher stakes, but it doesn't make our work easier."

The current list of retiring MPs:

Liberal

Larry Bagnell Yukon

Navdeep Bains Mississauga Malton

Bob Bratina Hamilton East Stoney Creek

Wayne Easter Malpeque

Pat Finnigan Miramichi-Grand Lake

Paul Lefebvre Sudbury

Geoff Regan Halifax West

Catherine McKenna Ottawa Centre

Kate Young London West

Conservative

Peter Kent Thornhill

Tom Lukiwski Moose Jaw Lake Centre Lanigan

Phil McColeman Brantford-Brant

Cathy McLeod Kamloops Thompson Cariboo

Bruce Stanton Simcoe North

David Sweet Flamborough Glanbrook

Diane Finley HaldimandNorfolk[has already stepped down]

Bloc Qubcois

Louise Charbonneau Trois Rivires

Simon Marcil Mirabel

NDP

Scott Duvall Hamilton Mountain

Jack Harris St. John's East

Mumilaaq Qaqqaq Nunavut

Independent

Jody Wilson-Raybould Vancouver Granville