Stephen Harper kicks off election year with Veterans Affairs shuffle

Given his characteristic inscrutability, we'll likely never know exactly when or, for that matter, why Stephen Harperfinallylost confidence in his veterans affairs minister.

In fact, we can't even be absolutely certain that he did.

The prime minister's office provided a pro forma statement that offered little explanation for the one-minister shuffle thattook place at Rideau Hall on what was, at least for most of official Ottawa, thefirst day back after the holiday break.

What we do know is that first-term MP Erin O'Toole was elevated from the ranks of themid-bench to cabinet totake over the controversy-plagued veterans affairs portfolio from Julian Fantino.

(In a quirk of politicalsynchronicity,O'Toole was elected to the House in the 2012 byelection triggered by thedeparture of Bev Oda, who, prior to Fantino, held the record for longest sustained period as embattled minister under this prime minister. And it was Fantino who took over Oda's international cooperation portfolio upon her departure.)

Meanwhile, Fantino has returned to his erstwhile associate minister post atNationalDefence although not, as was the case during his earlier tenure, to oversee procurement.

According to the statement issued by the prime minister's office,Fantino's reassignment will allow him to "support" Defence Minister Rob Nicholson on matters related to"Arctic sovereignty, information technology security and foreign intelligence."

It's worth noting that ifhis new responsibilities include the operations and oversight of Canada's electronic spy agency,Fantino could verywellfindhimselfspendingnearly as much timeon his feet in the Commons as he didin his previous job.

Fantino on defensive throughout fall sitting

Even if he doesn't, he'll almost certainly have a prominent role on the Greater Toronto Area party fundraising circuit during the leadup to the next election, as Vaughanand its surrounding areas as well as the Italian-Canadian community arecrucial points on the Conservatives' projected path to victory.

It's that very same loomingdate with the electoratethat likelyled the prime minister to conclude it was timefor a changing of the ministerial guard at Veterans Affairs.

After all, both the New Democrats and the Liberalsspent much of the fall sitting hammering awayat Fantino and, by proxy, the prime minister and his party overhis handling of everything from disability payments to mental health services to the closure of regional offices.

There's every reason to think that both partiesareplanning to pick up where they left off when the House returns later this month and carry onrightthrough the coming campaign.

It will now fall toO'Toole himself a former soldier, albeitnot a combat veteran to do his best to restore, in the minds of voters, the Conservatives to what they see as their rightful position as the most pro-militaryparty on the ballot.

Fortunately for the newly minted minister,he's had some practice defending his government's record onveterans.

Communications to blame?

Before beingelevated to cabinet, he was a regular fixture on the nightly political panel circuit which,as a result of the opposition fervouron the veteransfile, meant spending a good chunk of timefending offdemands for Fantino's resignation.

During those exchanges, O'Toole made the case that the ongoing difficulties with the veterans affairs filewere mostly a matter of miscommunication.

He's about to get the chancetoput that theory to the test subject, that is, to the approval of the Prime Minister's Office, which still has ultimate signing authority over ministerial messaging.

If hesucceeds inquelling the criticism, O'Tooleshould be prepared for a sudden dropin his public profile: there is, after all, little fodder for opposition or public outragein aprogram thatis working as intended and expected. And there's a reason why Veterans Affairs used to be considered a suitable stopping-point for ministers not yet ready to resign, but not planning onrunning for re-election.

But if O'Toole manages to puta lid on the simmering dissatisfaction of veterans, it would almost certainly bump him to thefront of the line for a post-election cabinetpromotionprovided, that is, his party is still in power after the dust settles.

And that, it seems,shouldserve as a powerfulincentive to impress the boss in the interim. More than one job including his own may depend on it.