Think tank fears more job cuts than Ottawa pledged

An analysis from the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives charges that the federal government has misrepresented its cuts to the public service, and predicts there will be more job losses than advertised and most will be in areas that impact public services.

The CCPA, a left-leaning Ottawa think-tank, said once all the numbers are in, the federal government will have eliminated almost 28,600jobs and not the 19,200 announced in the March 2012 budget.

But a spokesman for Treasury Board President Tony Clement calls the report "inaccurate and purposefully misleading," saying some of thejob numbers cited inthereport includetemporary and term positions, "which by their nature are not permanent."

Judging from department employment estimates, most come from front-line operations and not administrative services as the government has claimed, the CCPA report said.

"Cuts within large federal departments are not coming from the 'back office', " said researcher David Macdonald, a senior economist with the think-tank. "Most of the job cuts in big departments are coming from programs that deliver services to Canadians."

The findings are similar to those of areport from parliamentary budget officer Kevin Page, who calculated the early returns on the $5.2-billion spending reduction announced by Finance Minister Jim Flaherty in March 2012 came from front line services, not a category Ottawa calls "internal services."

"The continued increase in internal services expenditure suggests that spending growth on overhead has not been curtailed, as suggested in budgets 2010 through 2012 and the focus of restraint exercises has instead been on reduced spending to front line services," Page concluded, although he admitted he was working on only partial disclosure from departments. The PBO has sincetaken Ottawa to court to acquire more information.

Clement's director of communications, Andrea Mandel-Campbell, wrote CBC News to say that claims that front-line services were affected were "unfounded and spurious."

Figuresfrom departmental 'plans and priorities' reports

Macdonald's analysis is based on departmental three-year spending projections published in annual reports on plans and priorities, which he says is the best indication of future government employment.

He concludes that by including spending restraint initiatives announced prior to the 2102 budget, the public service will wind up losing about 28,600 jobs by March 2016, reducing the federal bureaucracy to 347,500 positions from 376,100.

That amounts to a total loss of about eight per cent, with most of the positions eliminated in the current and next fiscal years. CCPA estimates there will be 13,400 positions cut in 2013-14 and another 9,500 in 2014-15.

Although the government has said about 17,000 jobs have already been excised so far, the CCPA analysis suggests only 3,100 positions have actually been removed from the books.

Macdonald said that may be due to a timing disconnect between the government announcement and when the department actually records the jobs eliminated, but either way, he says the data suggests this will be a rough year for the public service.

"As promised, we are reducing the size of the public service, while reducing the impact on employees through attrition, sun-setting term contracts and qualified placements to other positions," wrote Matthew Conway, Clement's press secretary in an email to CBC News. "Leaner and more affordable government is good for taxpayers."

Impact greaterin some departments

The report estimates that in relative terms, Statistics Canada will be the most hard hit of the large departments, losing 35 per cent of its workforce, or 2,230 jobs, followed by Human Resources and Skills Development andVeterans Affairs, losing 5,716 and 872 positions respectively, or about one quarter of their employees. The Canadian Food Inspection Agency and Aboriginal Affairs will shed 1,407 and 1,094 jobs respectively, representing about 20 per cent.

"If we could cut all this fat and not have an impact on services, that would be fine, but we can't," Macdonald said.

"Veteran's Affairs is probably one of the best examples where the two biggest cuts ... are coming from people that deal with veterans' health care and those that deal with death and disability benefits."

Clement's office says that with respect toboth Veterans Affairs and HRSDC,"thedepartments are introducing meaningful and transformative back office modernization thatisimprovingservice to Canadians while respecting taxpayer dollars."

In the case of the HRSDC reductions, the minister's office says the reductions are found in the "back office administration" of the employment insurance program, as "small local offices" are consolidated into "regional hubs."Offices that process other applications and conduct"integrity" auditshave also been regionally consolidated.

"Included in this streamlining and modernization is a revamping of the appeals process for EI/CPP and OAS," wrote Mandel-Campbell in an email. "The old appeals process for EI is expensive and slow, with fewer than one in three claims heard in 30 days. The new Social Security Tribunal will eliminate duplication and overlap and provide fair and fast service."

She added that the CCPA'sassertion that transfer payments forhomelessnessinitiatives werecut significantly is wrong the funding was renewed in the 2013 federal budget, butthat was not part ofthe departmental report analyzed by the CCPA.

The Veterans Affairs cuts, she explains, are part of the department's process of "embracing business and technological improvements and cutting red tape for veterans." Reductions to health program spending by the department result fromthe transfer of ownership of St. Annes hospital to the Province of Quebec, she says.

StatsCan jobs tied to federal census

Many of the Statistics Canada job cuts were temporary positions hired for the 2011 federal census, Mandel-Campbell says.

In addition, the Aboriginal Affairs reductions willresult from the wrap-up of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission as well as the recently-announceddevolution of powers to the Northwest Territories, Clement's office says.

Of the big departments, only in the Canada Revenue Agency, which is slated to slice 2,491 jobs or six per cent of its workforce, are the majority of jobs losses categorized as internal services.

In percentage terms, the Canadian Northern Economic Development agency (51 per cent), the Canadian Grain Commission (44 per cent), the Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency (34 per cent), and the Canada School of Public Service (30 per cent) will also suffer deep cuts.

National Defenceis in line for a large reduction in terms of raw numbers with a loss of 3,577 positions, but that represents only four per cent of the department.