DNC email hack: A look at the theory Russian operatives led attack to boost Trump's bid

Days after a massive leak of hackedemailsthreatened to spoil the Democratic Party's convention kickoff, political operativesand assorted experts continue to debate whether the attack was a Russian plot to boost Donald Trump's presidential bid.

DonaldJensen,a resident fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysisand expert on Russia, says the potential motive is obvious.

"Certainly the Kremlin prefers Trump, there's no questionabout that at all," he said.

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Trump's a businessmanwhose political ideology is making deals, Jensen said. Hehas seriously questioned the U.S. commitment to Europe and to NATO and has saidhe might not necessarilydefend NATO allies if they are attacked by Russia.

'He's a leader'

Trump and Russian President VladimirPutinhave also praised each other in the past, with the Russian leader saying Trump is "bright and talented." Trump, for his part, saidPutinis "running his country and at least he's a leader, unlike what we have in this country."

Jensen said the Russianshave quietly intervened in elections in Europe, tending more to give financial aid to populist parties that may undermine the western European alliance.

"And now, with the appearanceofTrump onthe scene, undermine the U.S. electoral process," Jensen said."And [Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton], for better or worse, is seen assupportinga tougher line againstPutin, thanTrump."

The question is whetherthe Kremlin would actually attempt to affect the outcome of the presidency through email hacks and leaks.

Wikileaks posted 19,000emails Friday, some of which suggested the Democratic National Committee, which is supposed to remain neutral during the primary season, favoured Clinton over rival Bernie Sanders. Key party officials appeared toconsider ways to discredit Sanders during the primaries.

Acybersecurityfirm the Democrats hired reportedlyfound traces on the party's networkof at least two sophisticated hacking groups thathave ties to the Russian government.

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In an interview with Democracy Now, Wikileaks founder Julian Assange refused to reveal the source of the emails, but said when it comes to the DNC, "there's lots of consultants that have access, lots of programmers."

"And theDNChas been hacked dozens and dozens of times. Even according to its own reports, it had been hacked extensively over the last few years."

In a laterinterview with NBC, Assangesaid there's "no proof ... whatsoever" that Russian intelligence was responsible for the hack.

The FBI announced Monday it's investigating.

The Russian plot theory suggests such a leak would only further enrage die-hard Sanders supporters and confirm what they've believed all along that the contest was rigged against their candidate from the beginning. Furious, many of them would then refuse to vote for Clinton, which would help Trump in the general election.

'Purpose of helping Donald Trump'

It's the theory being championed by the Clinton campaign.Robby Mook, campaign manager,saidcyberattackexperts believe"Russian state actors were feeding the email to hackers for the purpose of helping Donald Trump."

But senior Trump adviserPaulManafortcalled the Clinton campaign statements "pretty desperate" and "pretty absurd." Trump himself has dismissed the idea.

MartinLibicki, a cyberwar expert at the RAND Corporation andauthor of the upcoming bookCyberspace in Peace and War,said it's much more likely than not that the Russians were involved in the hack.

He saidinvestigators are able to determine this, in part,by the kind ofmalwareused.For example, authorities concludedNorth Korea hacked into Sony Pictures in late 2014because the samemalwarewas used against South Korean companies.

"A similar logic basically says you can't prove it's the Russians, but it's probablythem,"he said.

And if the Russians are responsible for the hack, he said, then it was likely conceived as a way todamage the Clinton campaign and help Trump.

'Gold mine'

James Lewis, an expert in cybersecurity at the Washington, D.C.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies,said hehas spoken with some of the DNC email hackinvestigators,who claimgroups connected to Russian military intelligence are responsible.

"There is no doubt that the Russians broke into the DNC servers," Lewissaid, adding foreign hacking into the email servers of U.S. campaigns certainly isn't a new phenomenon.

In 2008, Chinese operativeswere accused of infiltrating the email servers of the campaigns ofboth BarackObama and Arizona Senator JohnMcCain.

It's a classic intelligence target, Lewis said, and allows the hackers to see who donates to the party andwhat research has been compiled on politicalopponents.

"It's a goldmine for understanding American politics, for understanding [what] the next administration,no matter who wins, looks like," Lewis said.

But he's hesitantabout concludingthe Russians would have handed over the material to Wikileaks with the ultimate goal of meddling in the presidential outcome.

The evidence, he said, is powerful but notconclusive and would be a "big step forward for the Russians."

"Interfering this blatantly in American politics?It's possible they thought theyweren'tgoing to be caught. Usually the Russians are prettygood, that's why I'm a little cautious. When the Russians don'twant to get caught,they don't get caught."

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