With El Nio expected to stretch into the winter, all eyes are on 2024

There is little doubt among climate forecasters that 2023 is on track to beat out 2016 as the warmest year on record globally.

As we keep pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, our planet continues to warm. But this year has seen a confluence of events that appear to be pushing temperatures even higher than expected.

One of those events is an El Nio, a natural and cyclical warming in the Pacific Ocean that warmsthe atmosphere above it, which can raise the global temperature and alterweather patterns across the planet.

But experts say that so far, it's played a small part in 2023's soaring temperatures. Its bigger role is yet to come.

"Usually, it's the subsequent year that is the warmest year," said Tom Di Liberto, a climate scientist and public affairs specialist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

"El Nio normally peaks around this time of year, the beginning of the new year, and then usually ends sometime in the springtime. We'll see if that holds true."

For the NOAA to declarean El Nio, a specific part of the Pacific Ocean called Nio 3.4must be 0.5 C warmer than the seasonal average for three consecutive months, with the expectation that it will continue for five consecutive three-month periods.

This year, the first three-month periodoccurred from April to June. The fifth will bethe August-to-October period. (The monthly diagnostic report will be issued the second week of November.)

However, no two El Nios are ever the same, and sometimes temperatures in the region can reach an increase of 1.5 C or higher, which is considered"strong."

And this seems to be the path we're on.

"I think, generally speaking, the chances of this event being a strong event is about 75 to 85 per cent," Di Liberto said.

He added that when an El Niois stronger, it doesn't mean that impacts will be stronger. Rather, we will see impacts most associatedwith these events one of which is a potential jump in global temperatures in 2024.

'Ridiculously large anomalies'

The last strong El Nio occurred in 2015-16. Ocean temperatures began to surge above 1.5 C warmer than average in the summer of 2015 eventually reaching as high as 2.6 C but it was the following year that broke global temperature records.

So if this yearis on track to bethe hottest yet, and the pattern holds, could 2024 be even hotter?

Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, said it's likely next year willbe another for the record books, but it may not necessarily beat out 2023mainly because there have been other factors that have pushed this year beyond expectations, and it's unclear if these will persist.

"My sense is, there'sfive separate thingswhich are pushing you into a [warming]direction, which is why we've had such ridiculously large anomalies," he said.

Those five things arechanges in the Antarctic (which are less understood at the moment), alack of marine shipping clouds that would otherwise reflect the sun's radiation back into space, record-setting ocean temperatures, lingeringeffects from the eruption of the Hunga Tonga volcano, and, ultimately, El Nio.

Schmidt said that, while any one of thosecould affect the temperature on the order of tenths ofdegrees, the combination of all fivemay be the reason the planet is so exceptionally warm this year.

Even if 2024 doesn't beat out 2023, Schmidt said that's not necessarily the way we should be looking at it.

"We can't be just thinking about this as a horse race. As an, 'Oh, which which year is ahead?'" he said.

"It has to be, 'Why are we seeing so many records?'

"What it tells us is, something is going on, and thatsomething is not going to go away until we change societyand what we're doing to the atmosphere."

Meanwhile in Canada

Even if El Nio doesn't make 2024 a record-breaker,its effects are still likely to be felt in Canada.

Typically, El Nio brings drier and warmer weather to the West Coast, which isn't ideal for the region after this year's record-breaking forest fire season,Di Libertosaid.

"If you have hotter conditions and nota lot of precipitation, that leads to drought or drier conditions, and then all you need is a spark," he said."And then you can have these wildfires just go rampant."

Butthere are no guarantees that will happen, he noted, adding thatEl Nio's impacts are never as bad as the worst-case scenarios people tend to picture.

"I always like to tell folks:that image will never be true.Thisnever, ever once happened in the history of the world."

WATCH |September broke another global temperature record:

September broke another global temperature record

11 months ago

Duration 2:49

The European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service has found that last month was the hottest September ever recorded, but more concerning is that 2023 is on track to become the hottest year on record for the planet.