Internal U.S. document foresees surge of coronavirus deaths this month: NY Times

An internal U.S. governmentdocument projects a surge in coronavirus cases and a sharp risein daily deaths by June 1, the New York Times reported onMonday, even as President Donald Trump urged states to liftrestrictions to quell the pandemic.

The document, based on modelling by the Centers for DiseaseControl and Prevention, projects that COVID-19, the respiratorydisease caused by the virus, will kill 3,000 Americans a day bythe end of May, the Times said, up from a current daily tollthat a Reuters tally places at around 2,000.

The projections, pulled together in chart form by theFederal Emergency Management Agency, forecast about 200,000 newcases each day by the end of the month, up from about 25,000cases now, the Times said.

Asked about the Times report, White House spokesman JuddDeere said: "This is not a White House document nor has it beenpresented to the Coronavirus Task Force or gone throughinteragency vetting."

Deere's statement said: "The health of the American peopleremains President Trump's top priority and that will continue aswe monitor the efforts by states to ease restrictions."

Varying estimates from Trump

COVID-19 has infected more than 1.1 million people in the U.S. and killed nearly 68,000, according to a tally by Johns Hopkins University.

Trump has given varying predictions for the number of peoplein the United States who will succumb to COVID-19, which has novaccine or known cure.

As recently as Friday the president had said he hoped fewerthan 100,000 Americans would die and earlier in the week hadtalked of 60,000 to 70,000 deaths.

But on Sunday night the president acknowledged the deathtoll may climb much higher.

"We're going to lose anywhere from 75, 80 to 100,000 people.That's a horrible thing," he told Fox News.

As of last week, the University of Washington's IHMEpredictive model, often cited by White House officials and statepublic health authorities, projected a first wave of 72,400coronavirus deaths in the United States.

The more pessimistic projection emerged alongside more signsof the devastation the pandemic was having on American life.Clothing retailer J. Crew Group Inc filed for bankruptcyprotection on Monday and said it would permanently close somestores.

The U.S. Supreme Court for the first time heard a case byonline teleconference open to the public.

States have felt pressured to ease restrictions onbusinesses and social life to revive their battered economies,but health experts have urged caution for fear of a resurgenceof the virus.

New York Plan

In New York, the state that accounts for about a third ofall U.S. infections, Gov.Andrew Cuomo on Monday outlinedplans to ease restrictions on a regional basis. He sketched outthe plan while at least half of the other 50 states moved aheadwith plans of their own to restart their battered economies.

Without giving a specific time frame, Cuomo told a dailybriefing that construction, manufacturing and the wholesalesupply chain would be allowed to start up under the first phaseof a four-step return to normality.

The state's stay-at-home order, in place since mid-March, isdue to expire on May 15, and the Democratic governor has saidpreviously that some regions outside the New York City area witha relatively low number of cases may start lifting restrictionsafter that date.

"Reopening is more difficult than the close-down. Theclose-down was relatively simple," he said, cautioning thatevery part of the state of 19 million people needed to movegradually.

Cuomo, who gave his daily coronavirus briefing on Mondayaround the same time as the New York Times broke its story onthe internal Trump administration document, gave the mostdetailed sketch so far on how the state would start to loosenrestrictions on businesses and daily life.

After the initial reopening of some workplaces, a secondphase would let insurance, retail, administrative support andreal estate businesses open again, followed by restaurants, foodservices, hotels and accommodation businesses in the thirdstage, Cuomo said.

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In the final phase, arts and entertainment and recreationfacilities, and education would restart.

While he did not specify which regions would open first,Cuomo showed a slide indicating the more rural northern andcentral parts of the state as "lower-risk regions" in contrastto the "higher-risk regions" which included New York City.

In Ohio, Gov.Mike DeWine was allowing construction andmanufacturing to reopen on Monday, and letting office workersreturn. Retail shops and many consumer services were due toresume operations on May 12.

But Gov.Jay Inslee of Washington whose state was thefirst coronavirus hotspot in the United States announced onFriday he would extend the lockdown through May 31. "It'sfrustrating, but we don't want to do this twice" he said.