Trump's agenda: What he can do and where he'll run up against political blowback

President-elect Donald Trump has laid out an ambitiousagenda for when he takes office,including plans for a wall along the Mexican border, pricey tariffs on some foreign goodsand a possibleban on Muslim immigrants.

But the next leader of the free world could face considerable resistance in implementing some of theseproposals particularly from members of his own party.

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Much of his campaign rhetoric called for theelimination ofpolicies and treaties proposed or enacted under theObamaadministration. These include the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal,Obamacare, the Iran nuclear deal,the Paris agreement on climate change, as well as arenegotiationor exit fromNAFTA.

As for what policies a Trump administrationwould implement, some areoutlined in his 100-day action plan released in October "Donald Trump's Contract with the American Voter."

Tax cuts

Trump mightbegin with his plan to cut taxes, a measure that will likely receive support from the Republican-dominated Senate and House, and particularlyHouse Speaker Paul Ryan.

While there's no love lostbetween Ryan and Trump, this is one area where the two could find common ground. While they agree on the merits of tax reductions, they might differ on how much to cut.

According to the Tax Policy Center, Trump proposed cutting taxes by $6.2 trillion over 10 years twice the size ofthe House Republican plan. And as the centre points out, it's unlikely a Republican-dominatedCongress would approve a plan that'sprojected to increase thenational debt by $7 trillion over the next decade.

The Wall

To combat illegal immigration, Trump has proposed the construction of a wall that's 1,600 kilometres long and12 metres high along the U.S. border with Mexico.

The project would face a few major obstacles.

First, there would be legal challenges from property owners because much of the wall would need to be built on private property, says John Sides, an associate professor of political science at George Washington University.

Then there's the cost. Trump has estimated aprice tagof around$10 billion, while others have suggested it could range from$15 billion to $25 billion,or possibly$40 billion.

Trump has said Mexico willpay for this barrier. But if his legendarydeal-makingabilitiesaren't able to swing that, it will be up to Congress to appropriate the money. Andbudget-conscious members of his own partymightnot be so eager to pony up for this endeavour.

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ReyKoslowski, associate professor of political science at the University atAlbany,says the economies of stateslike California, Texas and Arizona dependon a strong trade relationship with Mexico. He says those businesses, many of which support Republican members of Congress, don'twant the government spending money on walls or any otherpolicies that could hurt their bottom line.

Plus, as Sides points out, Trump would likely need asupermajorityin the Senate 2/3 support, meaning more than just Republican votesto get it funded.

"I doubt that Congress will rubber-stamp this."

Deportation of illegal immigrants

Trump's vow to crackdownon the estimated 11 million illegal immigrants in the U.S would be difficult, expensive and politically risky, according to Koslowski and Sides.

"The issue is just the capacity to identify, apprehend, and then process and deport," Koslowski said.

"It is a massive and expensive undertaking," Sides added. "Perhaps he could authorize this unilaterally, but it would soon strain the capabilities of law enforcement. There would also be a huge political backlash."

Muslim ban?

Trump's contract with votersalso includes the pledge to "suspend immigration from terror-prone regions where vetting cannot safely occur" a refinement of his earlier promise of a "total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States."

Constitutional scholarshave expressed mixed opinions on whether that would be unconstitutional. Yet by tweaking the wording of his ban to replace "Muslims"with"immigration from terror-prone regions," Trump may have the authority he needs.

As pointed out in the New York Times,Trump's ban would rely on a law that gives the president authority to prevent the entry of any class of people who would be "detrimental to the interests of the United States."

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Gary Gregg, director of the University of Louisville's McConnell Center, sayswhether Trump decides to push the initiative will depend on what's happening at home and abroad.

"If we're quiet, as we have been, there will be no incentive to bring it up and to force that issue, which will poison the well," he said."But ifthere are some terrorist attacks, the game changes at that pointand that will be on the public's mind, hissupporters' minds and likely on his mind."

"My guess is he will be around smart enoughpeople ... whowill say, 'You don't wantto start off with doing the most controversial thing you can do."

Tariffs

Trump vowed in the campaign to slap a 35 per centtariff on goods coming from Mexico and a 45 per centtariffon Chinese imports. Free-trade Republicans in the House andSenate likely wouldn't support such a move. But would Trump even need congressional approval to takeaction? Apparently not.

GaryHufbauer, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, says Trump's targeted tariffs would fall within his presidential powers.

"He can be very specific on what products he targets. Soif there's a particularcompanythat he thinks is moving jobs to Mexico and he wants to penalize them ... he can target those particular products. He's got a lot of power."

But Trump would be restrained,Hufbauersays, by the economicblowbackof such measures. Tariffs like those would affect U.S firms that are dependent on certain importsto make their products. It couldforce them to shut down their lines and lay off workers.

And foreigncountries will retaliate, he says,targetingproducts from states that are politically sensitivefor the president.

"Thatblowbackimpact ... would causea PresidentTrump to pause, but he has all the legal authority he needs to dothese things."

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