A verdict against Trump may not hurt his base but what about other supporters?

A day after aNew York jury found that Donald Trump had sexually abused magazine writer E. Jean Carroll in the 1990s and later defamed her, an audience of mostly Trump supportersat a CNN town hall greeted the former U.S. presidentwith enthusiastic applause. Some gave him a standing ovation.

When the topic of the civil casewas raised Wednesday night by CNN moderator Kaitlan Collinsand Trump responded with jokes and insults about Carroll, many in the audience laughed.

The verdict in the civil case, for which Trump filed a notice of appeal on Thursday,is just part of his legal baggage as he campaigns to be the Republican presidential nominee for 2024, raising questions of how,at the very least,it might impact his chances in the general election.

"Canenough of these indictments against a former president become this collective sort of baggage? Maybe," Gunner Ramer, political director of the Republican Accountabilty PAC, a group ofRepublicans and conservatives seeking to ensure Trump isn't the party's presidential nominee, said in an interview.

"Or is it that these these indictments are so spread apart, his idea of victimhood is just sprinkled in every so often, itcreates this short-term rally around Trump constantly?"

The reaction to the verdict among the Trump-friendly crowd at the CNN town hallsuggested thatthe civil trial, and the jury's verdict, may have little impact on supporters as he campaigns tobecome the Republican presidential nominee.Indeed, some Republican observers sayit may boost his support among those who believe, like Trump, that he's the victim of a prosecutorial witch hunt.

"Oh, the hardcore base will of course interpret it that way. The real question is what effect it has beyond the hardcore base," said Republican strategist Whit Ayres.

Ayres seesRepublicans split intothree factions: around 10 per cent "never Trump,"30 per cent "always Trump" and the rest"maybe Trump."

"There is an 'always Trump'faction that will walk through a wall of flame for him and for whom this verdict will, if anything, strengthentheir support for him," he said."The women in Trump's hardcore base will simply dismiss the accuser as a liar and not pay much attention."

Ramer said his group's research has revealed a small rallyof support for Trump at times when he's viewed by some Republicans asbesieged by the legal establishment.

That includes, Ramer said, theindictment by a Manhattan grand juryon charges relating tohush money payments made in 2016 to women who alleged extramarital affairs, as well as the FBI raid on his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida overhis handling of classified documents and potential obstruction of justice.

"[The verdict] is another thing for Republican primary voters to look at and brand Donald Trump once again asthis person that is, for them, constantly being attacked, this sense of victimhood," Ramer said.

Recent polls suggest Trump's support has only risen among Republican supporters, including women. A poll conducted in Aprilby Fox News found thatTrump leads his potential and confirmed rivals for the presidential nominationwith 53 per centsupport, followed by Florida Gov. RonDeSantis at 21 per cent, Trump's former vice-president Mike Pence at six per centand former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley at four per cent.

And those results were roughly the same for men and women.

WATCH | Trump says Jan. 6, 2021 dayof U.S. Capitol attack was a 'beautiful day':

Trump brushes off sex abuse verdict in CNN town hall

1 year ago

Duration 2:58

After years of calling CNN 'fake news, Donald Trump held a campaign town hall on the network. It came just days after a jury found that Trump, the current frontrunner in the Republican primary race, sexually abused and defamed columnist E. Jean Carroll.

Meanwhile, a recent Washington Post/ABC News pollalso found Trump leading other Republicans, and, more dire for U.S. President Joe Biden, that hewould lose to Trump, 49 per centto 42 per cent.

Axiosco-founder Mike Allen noted in his morning newsletter following Trump's sex assault verdict that"Trump's grip over Republicans seemsstronger than ever and chances of beating President Biden are ashigh as ever."

"Call it the Trump Law of Inverse Reactions:Everything that would seem to hurt him only makes him stronger," he wrote.

However, the verdict did spark some Republican politicians to question how viable it makes Trump in a general election.

'It creates a concern'

"Of course it creates a concern. How could it not create a concern? If what the woman says he's been found to be civilly liable, how could it do anything else but create a concern?" Louisiana Republican Sen. Bill Cassidytold reporters on Wednesday when asked about the verdict.

Sen.John Thune of South Dakota saidwhile some believe that prosecutors "are out to get" Trump,"people are going to have to decide whether they want to deal with all the drama that's going to surround him."

A couple of his potential nominee opponents also condemnedTrump.

"The jury verdict should be treated with seriousness and is another example of the indefensible behaviour of Donald Trump," said former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson, who has officially declared his candidacy.

Former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, who may also make a bid, rejected Trump's cries of victimhood.

"How many coincidences are we going to have here with Donald Trump?" Christie said.

"He just has random people he's never met before who are able to convince a jury that he sexually abused them?I mean, this guy, it's one person after another," he said.

But most potential and declared presidential candidateswere silent about the verdict. Haley, whenasked about iton the conservative talk show The Hugh Hewitt Show, refused to comment, saying:"I'm not going to get into that. That's something for Trump to respond to."

Meanwhile, other Republicansdefended the former president.

"When it comes to Donald Trump, the New York legal system is off the rails," said South CarolinaSen.Lindsey Graham

'Vote for him twice'

"It makes me want to vote for him twice," Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville told HuffPost when asked about the verdict. "They're going to do anything they can to keep him from winning. It ain't gonna work people are gonna see through the lines; a New York jury, he had no chance."

Republican strategist Matt Mackowiak said the verdict plays into the message Trump's had for many years that he's being targeted unfairly. With most candidates involved in these kind of controversies, there's a huge outcry, the person feels shame, starts hiding, even potentially drops out, he said.

"But Trump doesn't feel shame. And I think part of that is he really only believes what he wants to believe. So in his mind, he believes he did nothing wrong. And this is a witch hunt. So he doesn't believe there's anything to be ashamed of,"Mackowiak said.

"One of the things he hasdone very effectively, and I think he's uniquein this way, is that he takes things that should be disqualifying or significantly damaging and he turns them around and makes himselfvictim."

But, Mackowiak said,whenthe primary debates begin, candidates will start drawing distinctions and contrasts.

"The one thing I wonder about is, will Republican primary voters become fatigued over the legal entanglements and the chaos surrounding Trump?"

Among Trump's legal entanglements, however, the sexual assault verdict may play a more significant role in helping primary voters decide whether they want to support him.

Ryan Goodman, a professor at theNew York University school of law, and Norma Eisen,who was co-counsel for the House judiciary committee on Trump's first impeachment trial, co-wrote an article making thepoint that research shows more voters find sexual misconduct a disqualifying feature for holding office.

"Some Republican primary voters may also look over the horizon at how voters in the general election will react to his having been proven to have committed sexual assault and accordingly wish to select a more competitive nominee for their party," they wrote in Just Security,an online forum for analysis of security, democracy, foreign policyand rights.