Why Ohio is important in the U.S. election, but crucial for Donald Trump

On the outskirts of North Lawrence, Ohio, Larry Schultz stands over the new Trump/Pence sign on his lawn. It's beenwired to a steel post that'spounded firmly into the groundwheretwo other signswere recentlyrippedout.

"I'm going to put a camera right here," says Schultz, hoping it mightthwartor catchany would-be sign thieves plotting a similar heist.

The signsare a proud andpublicshow of endorsementfor the Republican presidential ticket thatSchultz says he supports because DonaldTrump isa Washingtonoutsider.

As Schultz sees it, Democratic nomineeHillary Clinton "lies about everything." But Trump despite his controversial commentswill protect his gun rights, saystheretiree,who worked at the nearbyMassillonsteel plant for 40 years.

"This guy right here," says Schultz, pointing to a neighbour, "he's a Trump man the same as I. The next two houses down are Democrats.

"And the third man down, he's a Trump man. So there's three and then theygot two."

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It's a mix of voters that well represents Stark County, a bellwether region that was won, just barely, by President Barack Obama four years ago.

In a way, this northeastern area, which includes Canton and a number of small towns and villages, represents Ohio, a purple county in a purple state.

Ohio decided 2004 election

Every four years, the national and international media lavish attention on Ohio, one of the few states where the presidential race remains competitive.

Obama won the state by 4.5 pointsin 2008and three points in 2012. But on election night in 2004, all eyes were on theOhio results, which ultimatelydecided the election for George W. Bush.

Ohio looks muchlike the average of the countrywith itsdemographicmakeup the exception beingHispanics, who make up only three per centof the population,saidPaul Beck, professor emeritus of political science atOhio State University.

It's also a combination of city centres, old mill towns, industrialemployment areas, farmlands and small towns.

"You can just go down the list of things that match up pretty well within the national average," Becksaid.

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Next to Florida and Pennsylvania, it carries the third-most electoral votes of any swing state (18). And if history is any guide, it's a state that is a path to the White House.

No Republican candidate has won the presidency without Ohio. Only two Democratic presidents, the most recent being John F. Kennedy in 1960, were able to secure victory without the Buckeye State.

But it's a state thathas traditionally leaned Republicanandsince no Republican has won the White House without it, it'sofparticularimportance to the party.

The RealClearPolitics average shows a tight race here, but that could change, given the revelation of Trump's crude comments about women in 2005.

Current polling also suggests that, according to the electoral college map, Clinton may not need tosecurea victory in Ohio to win the election. But those same polls also indicate that Trump, to become president, needs to carry the state.

"I think if he loses Ohio, he's doomed," said Beck.

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With such an unconventionalcandidate as Trump, who has frustrated political prognosticatorssince his primary run, this couldalso be a year where Ohio is not the so-called arbiter of the election.

State could back Trump in a loss

"If Donald Trump becomes president, Ohio will vote for him," wrote Kyle Kondik, of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics and author of The Bellwether: Why Ohio Picks the President.

"If Hillary Clinton wins Ohio, she will be president. But if Hillary Clinton wins by just a small margin nationally, the state could easily back Trump in a loss."

The state includes 88 counties thatKondik breaks downthis way:58 are in the "red reach" (Republican), 10 are "blue islands" (Democrat) and20 are "purple enclaves."

Yet despite the Republican advantage in Ohio's counties,the state is still competitive as Democrats get big support from the large cities, he wrote.

However, inthis election, Trump's anti-free trade rhetoric has resonated among many voters in northeastern cities like Canton,where manufacturing has been hollowed out andunion members blame tradeagreements for lostjobs.

'Tremendous effort'

There had been reports thatwith polls showing Trump gaining ground in Ohioand with Clinton not in the area very often,shemay be giving up on the state and instead focusingresources on places like Florida.

Clinton made an appearance in Columbus onMondayand recently campaigned in Akron.Obama is expected to campaign here this month, while former U.S. president Bill Clinton has been all over the state.

"I don't think the Democratshave given up on Ohio.I think the Democratsare goingto give a tremendous effort to win this state," said Green.

In terms of the all-important getting-out-the-vote campaign, the Democrats have certainly had a great advantage coming into the election because of their strong connection to the local Democratic parties in the state, said Green.

Trump was initiallyat a disadvantage, in part because of his testy relationships with the state party organization andwith Republican Ohio Gov.John Kasich.

Theformer presidential candidaterefusedto show up at the GOP convention in Cleveland and hadyet to endorse the real estate magnate. Now, with the release of Trump's video comments, Kasichhas made it clear he will not be supporting the candidate.

Better ground game

But Green said Trump has since "substantially" improved his organization in the state, in part by hiring seasoned Republican operatives.

Meanwhile, local Republican organizations have slowlybut surelycome around to supporting him.

Trump is also likely benefitingfrom the Senate race and the campaign efforts to re-elect Republican Senator Rob Portman.

"The get-out-the-vote effort works for the ticket as a whole," Green said.

As for Schultz, the disparate political philosophies among his neighbours havenot affected their neighbourly relationships.

"I get along with them fine," Schultz said. "In fact, I rub it in one way or the other and they do the same to me."

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