As new air defences appear in Moscow, Russians see more signs of war at home

More visible signs of war are emerging in Russia, with air defences being placed on Moscow rooftops and Kremlinofficials sharply decrying the widening array of weapons the West is providing toUkraine.

Reports emerged on social media last week that anti-aircraft missiles had been spottedon key buildings in central Moscow, including at a defence ministry command centre. Military drills also took place outside the capital, with Russia's defence ministry saying troops "conducted an exercise to repel a mock air attack."

There is nothing abnormal about countries having air defences around key military installations or major cities.But new military drills testingS-300 mobile surface-to-airbatteries around the capital,coupled with social media reports that Pantsir S-1 anti-aircraft missiles had been mounted on buildings in centralMoscow,suggest Russia may be reinforcing its air defences.

These developments have occurred alongside growing tensions about tanks and other heavy weapons that Ukraine has been promised byWestern allies, leaving Russia weighing their implications forthe conflict.

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With arms shipments intensifying, some Russia watchers say there couldbe real concerns within parts of Russia'sdefence establishment about the potential for the war to heat up closer to home.

Oleg Ignatov, a senior Russia analyst for the International Crisis Group,a non-governmental organization,believes a decision to erect these defences stems from concerns that Moscow should be prepared for the unexpected.

"It seems that [the] Ukrainians have capabilities that allow them to strike deep inside Russia," Ignatov told CBC News from Brussels, pointing to high-profile attacks in Russian-held Crimea and on targetsinsideRussia.

Ignatov believes Russia isunclearhow far Kyiv's reachmay extend, as billions of dollars worth ofadvancedWestern military aidpours into the country.

Dani Nedal, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Toronto, said the West has grownwilling to arm Ukraine with more sophisticated weapons, despite initial hesitations.

"The restraint has been eroded over time," said Nedal, noting the West's shiftfrom an earlier position of providing Ukraine with primarily defensive weapons.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov saidThursday that Moscow views recently announced tank shipments and other aidas part of the West's"growing" and "direct involvement in the conflict."

'Very focused' deployment

While people living in Moscowmay be watching what's happening with new air defences, Ignatov does not think domestic considerations are driving the deployment.

"They didn't put [them] everywhere," he said. "It's not massive, it's very focused."

Nedalsaid these deploymentscan't be done in secret. And he believes the Russian government has downplayed itssignificance.

"If you're the Russian government, you won't wait until there is an attack to start placing air defences," he said.

But Dan Storyev, the English-language managing editor of OVD-Info, an independent human rightsgroup that monitors protests in Russia, is more skepticalon the domestic political motives driving new air defences.

"In my opinion, there is little hard military rationale to deploy [these]in Moscow in such a manner," Storyev said via email, speaking as an individual and not on behalf of his organization.

Storyev said the move might "reassure Muscovites of their safety, but it will simultaneously function as a reminder of war."

Analysts at theInstitute for the Study of War had a similar take, recentlysurmisingthe Kremlindeployed them "to generate inflammatory images that portray the war as more threatening to the Russian public."

Emily Harding,deputy director and senior fellow with the International Security Program at theCenter for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said the air defences could be part of a larger message Russia has presented about the war itself.

"They've been spinning this conflict, from the beginning, as a defensive action by them, as opposed to an offensive action," said Harding, whoinvestigatedRussian interference in the 2016 U.S. election, while previously working for the U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.

"They've been telling themselves and their people that this was designed to be defending Russiaagainst NATO's encroachment."

As Russia'swar with Ukraine nears its one-year anniversary, there's concern about an expected new phase of conflict;Kyiv predicts moreRussian conscriptswill be drafted into the fight.

If Russia pushes forward with a new offensive, that could provide an impetus for it tighten up its own defences as it may be doing in Moscow. "If they are preparing for a new offensive, of course they should care about defence of their critical objects," Ignatovsaid.

Harding, however, said aUkrainianattack on Moscow seems neither likely nor planned.

"It seems like every time the conflict looks like it could escalate, the parties sort of bring it back to the interior of Ukraine," she said.

"And I think it behooves everybody in the conflict to keep it limited. Russia doesn't want a wider war. NATO certainly doesn't want a wider war."