What continued drone strikes on Russian oil refineries could mean for war with Ukraine

Hostile drones have beenwinding their way across the Russian landscape this winter, striking refineries and related oil and gas infrastructure all the way from the Baltic Sea in the northwest to the Black Sea in the southwest.

Drones attackedboth the Ilskyand Afipsky refineries in Russia's Krasnodar region,east of occupied Crimea, on Feb. 9, less than a weekafteranother refinery in Volgograd, the largest in southern Russia, was hit.Further attackshave struckother refineries and oil depots nearthe Ukrainian border,as well as much deeper into Russian territory.

ThoughUkraine does not typically confirm its actions outside its borders and Russia has not officially acknowledged drones were the cause of these incidents, media reportshave identified Kyiv's hand in the attacks occurring with regularity asMoscow's invasion of Ukraine nears the two-year mark.

Analysts saythe drone attacks aredemonstratingthat oil and gas targets of economic significanceare not out of reach, even far from the front lines of the war.

"This is where strikes are intended to hurt," said Sergey Radchenko, a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. He sees a distinction between these typesof targetsversusstrikes that have drawn attentionbut had less strategicimpact.

He says Ukraine has gradually been able to senddrones"further and further inside Russia," and in doing so, may be aiming to make Russia think twice about its actions on the other side of the border.

Russia, oil and revenues

Late U.S. Senator John McCain once derisively described Russia as being "a gas station masquerading as a country" a jibe underlining the critical importance of oil and gas products to Moscow.

Indeed,Russiadrawsheavily onits resource reserves to support the state. The International Energy Agency says Russia's oil and gas export revenues accounted for 45 per cent of its federal budget in 2021.

Over the course of the war, as theWest capped the price ofRussia's oil, it turnedinstead toChina, India and other markets.

As Radchenko points out, these exports contribute "significantly" to Russia's earnings, allowing it to use those funds to import goodsand support thewar effort.

A Januaryattack on aNovatek facility in Ust-Luga halted gas processing operations therefor several weeks. The plant processes gas condensate into various fuel products that are exported to customers in Turkey and Asia, according toReuters.

Sergey Vakulenko, aformer strategy executive at Gazprom Neft, a subsidiary of the larger Russian energy firm, believestheUst-Luga episode may illustrate a bigger problem for Russia than a temporary disruption to production ata single facility.

In a recent analysispublished online, Vakulenkoreasoned that if small drones can get all the way to Ust-Luga, which is hundreds of kilometres from the Ukrainian border,there are some 18 Russian refineriesat risk of being targeted, and they accountfor more than half the country's refinery production. He's not the only analyst noticing this concern for Russia's refineries.

And while the drones being used in these attacks may be small, they can still cause problems.

"With a bit of luck, they can damage not just pipelines, but also compressors, valves, control units, and other pieces of equipment that are tricky to replace because of sanctions," Vakulenko wrotein the analysis.

The Russian government has taken steps to deal with the problem.

Maxim Starchak, an independent expert onthe Russian defence and nuclear industry, saysregulationshave been put in place torestrict drones from flying close to "the most significant fuel and energy sector facilities"and operatorsare using electronic warfare systems to defend against drone threats.

But Starchak said Russian energy firms must foot the bill forexpenses related to defence of their facilities.

"Moscow will not specifically help," he said, noting Russian authorities may hold firms accountablefor not putting measures in place toprotect their facilities.

A familiar threat for Ukraine

On the other side of the border, Ukraine has seenthe deadly impactdrone strikescan haveincluding in Kharkiv last weekend.

Regional governor Oleh Syniehubovsaid at least 10 incoming drones were involved in the assault, with eight of the devices shot down but onehit an oil depot, which then caused a fuel leak. Theensuing fireburned down 15 homes and killed at least seven people.

Ukraine has faced attacks on various forms of infrastructuresince the launch of the Russian invasion, includingits energy grid, port facilitiesand railway stations.

As Ukraine continues to fight to repel Russian forces from its lands, its military leaders have signalled drones and related technology will be needed to win the war that seems to have no end in sight.

"Only changes and constant improvement of the means and methods of warfare will make it possible to achieve success on this path," said Col.-Gen. OleksandrSyrskyi, the newly minted Ukrainian army chief, in a recent Telegram post.