Trump lumped together Canada, Mexico as border problems. Data shows it's apples and oranges

In a characteristically bombastic threat to slap hefty tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports to the U.S. once he takes office next year, president-elect Donald Trump said he was motivated by border issuesbetween those countries and his own.

"As everyone is aware, thousands of people are pouring through Mexico and Canada, bringing Crime and Drugs at levels never seen before," Trump wrote Monday night on Truth Social, his social media platform.

"This Tariff will remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!"

WATCH | Canada must address border issues, says former minister:

Canadas charm offensive won't appease Trump tariffs: former minister | Canada Tonight

1 day ago

Duration 9:49

Former president and CEO of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce Perrin Beatty says Canada needs to address underlying concerns of the incoming Trump administration, such as security at the border, as the charm offensive will not be effective.

But though the post equatedmigration across Canada's border to migration from Mexico, the numbers suggest the issue is akin to an apples-and-oranges comparison, former diplomaticofficialsand Canadian ministers said Tuesday.

"We, the United States, do have a significant challenge on our southern border. To equate the two borders is to, frankly, miss the point," saidGordon Giffin, former U.S. ambassador to Canada.

"The dimension of it is not comparable at all and nor should the response to it be comparable."

Illegal migration from Canada to U.S.

Illegal migration through Canada into the U.S. has grown in recent years.

U.S. Customs andBorderProtectionofficers recorded nearly 200,000 encounters at the northernborderbetween October 2023 and September 2024, according to department data. That isnearly double the number recorded during thesame period in 2022, and six times the number seen in 2020.

The term "encounters" includes apprehensions, people who are deemed inadmissible and those who are expelled from theU.S.

That said, the number of incidents on the Canadian border last yearamounted to barely oneper centof the total number of people stopped by theU.S. Border Patrol from trying to enter the U.S. in between checkpoints.

A federal source said Trudeau raised that fact with Trump during their call Monday night. Canada has also taken steps in recent months to address U.S. concerns, includingbringing back visa requirementson travellers from Mexico, and announcing new immigration measures.

Numbers far greater on southern border

The numbers aresignificantly higher along the Mexican boundary.

U.S. officials recorded more than two million encounters along the Mexico border between October 2023 and September 2024 10 times the number at the Canadian border during the same period. Each of the two previous years also saw more thantwo million encounters along the southern border.

Immigration Minister Marc Miller said Tuesday that, in terms of numbers, there is no comparison between the flow of migrants entering theU.S. from Canada and thoseentering from Mexico.

"It's the equivalent on a yearly basis with a significant weekend at the Mexicoborder."

Miller added that it's still a concern, regardless of the numbers.

"At the same time, it's not something I want to not take seriously, because it is serious," Miller said.

"We have a job to not make our problems the Americans' problems and they have a job not to make their problems ours."

Nations lumped together as political move, experts say

Tyler Meredith, a former fiscal policy adviser to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, said Trump might have put the two nations in the same boat to increase his negotiating power over North America as a trade region.

"Although he's punching it in the context of a border issue and it a border issue for Mexico, much less so for Canada what he's really trying to do is open the door for a renegotiation of the [Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement|," Meredith said.

Giffin said Trump might have done so to "appear to be balanced."

"Many in Congress, for example, on the southern borderargue that the northern border should be treated just the samenot because there's any underlying facts to support itbut just for symmetry as a political matter," Giffin told CBC News Network on Tuesday.

WATCH | What the tariffs could mean for Canada:

What Trumps 25% tariff could mean for Canadas economy, currency | Canada Tonight

1 day ago

Duration 7:41

Ian Lee, associate professor at the Sprott School of Business at Carleton University, says Donald Trumps proposed U.S. tariffs on Canadian products would be catastrophic for the countrys economy and currency, causing incalculable damage.

Also Tuesday, Canadian Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlancsaid Canada shares many of the same concerns as the Americans when it comes to illegal migration, and drugs and other contraband making its way into the country.

"We totally understand the American concern around the security and integrity of the border. It's a concern that obviously Canadians share. The Government of Canada has exactly those same concerns," he told reporters in Ottawa.

"The good news is that, for decades, this collaborative work happening literally daily with American authorities and Canadian authorities has allowed us to keep both countries safe."