Cold could favour Stamps in West final

After an impressive 1-1 record this past weekend, were 6-6 in choosing playoff winners over three years (dont bet anything).

Here, with a bonus weather report, is how we see the West being won:

The Calgary Stampeders (13-5) will defeat the Saskatchewan Roughriders (11-8) in the West final on Sunday at McMahon Stadium and advance to the Grey Cup.

For about 48 hours after the Riders won that thrilling semifinal over the B.C. Lions in double overtime,we werecalling Saskatchewan to beat the Stamps.

Then we checked the forecast. It calls for somewhere below -11C at kickoff, dropping like a stone from there to five or six degrees colder. Light snow. Light winds.

The lower that mercury plunges, the better Calgary looks.

Dr. Michael Eben, PhD (and Renaissance man), was chatting on the phone the other day about what its like pulling in a pass in that weather. The former Toronto and Edmonton all-star equated it to something like catching a 17th-century cannonball and then watching each of your frozen fingers fall off your hand to the ground.

You can catch it. You just dont want to.

So if the cold is going to take the receivers out of the equation to any extent (and this is not certain see below), we have to start looking at the running games.

The Cornish factor

Were a firm believer that you throw most of the 25 stats categories for each of the offence and defence out because reality is only found up on the big board, where the Stamps outscored the Riders 626-497 on the season.

But as a backup argument, they also were better than Saskatchewan in net rushing, yards rushing per game, and first downs rushing. And the White Stallions were also far stronger than the Green and White in stopping the run defensively (by over 600 yards).

It is true that offensively Saskatchewan can match the Stamps Joffrey Reynolds (1,200 yards on the ground) with Wes Cates (1,054 yards). And their rushing quarterback Darian Durant (618 yards) was a touch better than Calgarys Henry Burris (491 yards).

How do you choose between them? Enter Jon Cornish and a stat many of you probably dont know (and neither did we until we looked it up): The Burnaby, B.C.,native is the top single-season rusher in Kansas Jayhawks history with 1,457 yards.

And in this, his fourth season with the Stamps, Cornish broke out for 618 yards on 85 carries an average of 7.3 a pop. He had 177 yards on 20 carries in three games against the Riders this season, acting as a perfect second option to Reynolds.

So if this game is about the ground attack, Cornish can well be the factor that separates the two teams from each other.

Plus, it says here the Stamps offensive line is better, and theres nothing the big cows (did we say that?) like more in cold weather than drive blocking.

Psychological barrier

What happens if the cold does not stop the passing games (and there is precedent for this)?

Back at the 1991 Grey Cup in Winnipeg, where the game-time temperature was 17-below on the C-scale, Calgarys Danny Barrett completed 34 of 56 passing attempts for 377 yards. He also lost that game to Toronto by throwing three interceptions.

Turnovers are a problem at any time, but they tend to pop up more as the temperature plunges. Calgary has the advantage here as well, sitting at plus-12 in giveaways-takeaways, while the Riders were minus-six.

Both quarterbacks, by the way, had bad years turnover wise, with Burris tossing 20 gifts to the defence and Durant 22.

Otherwise, the passing games match up well. Saskatchewan has Andy Fantuz (1,380 yards receiving), Calgary has Nik Lewis (1,262). Riders have Weston Dressler (1,159), Stamps have Ken-Yon Rambo (1,172).

And on like that.

There is a psychological barrier for the Stampeders to overcome. These two teams have met three times in the playoffs over the last four seasons and Saskatchewan won all of them.

But in the cold of Calgary, with a couple of centimetres of snow falling, being able to run is going to make all the difference, it says here.

So we changed the pick to Calgary.