NHL season preview: Ottawa Senators

This is part of our series of season previews for the seven Canadian-based NHL teams. We've also covered Montreal, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Calgary,Vancouverand Toronto.

Ottawa Senators

2015-16 record: 38-35-9 (85 points), 5th out of 8 in Atlantic Division, missed playoffs.

Key off-season additions: F Derick Brassard, F Chris Kelly.

Key off-season subtractions: F Mika Zibanejad, D Chris Phillips, F Alex Chiasson, D Patrick Wiercioch.

Probability of winning the Cup*: 1.4%

Probability of making the playoffs**: 27.2%

*derived from betting odds posted by Pinnacle

**derived from betting odds posted by Bodog

Last season's story

Erik Karlsson performed brilliantly, finishing fifth in the NHL scoring race while becoming the first defenceman in 20 years to reach 82 points. He lost the Norris Trophy to L.A.'s Drew Doughty, though, in part because the Senators played horrid defenceon his watch only Colorado surrendered more than Ottawa's 31.8 shots against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Despite productive seasons by forwards Mike Hoffman (29 goals) and Mark Stone (61 points) and valiant goaltending by Craig Anderson and 2015 folk hero Andrew "Hamburglar" Hammond (the team's 5-on-5 save percentage ranked seventh), the Sens regressed from their miracle run to the playoffs a year earlier. Rotten special teams were partly to blame: Ottawa ranked in the bottom five in both power-play and penalty-killing success rate.

The off-season

Stepping in for Bryan Murray, new general manager Pierre Dorion fired coach Dave Cameron and hired former Tampa bench boss Guy Boucher to install some defensive structure. Dorion also traded young forward Mika Zibanejad to the Rangers for respected veteran Derick Brassard, sacrificing upside for a player with a longer track record.

Dream scenario

Boucher figures out a way to coax better defensive play from his team while not hampering Karlsson's dynamic attacking style; enigmatic (and expensive) Bobby Ryan makes good on the potential he flashed before arriving in Ottawa; the top-end forwards produce enough to mask the team's soft underbelly; Anderson and/or Hammond get hot; the Senators climb back into the playoffs.

Nightmare scenario

In an effort to slow opposing teams, Boucher takes the air out of Karlsson's game as players and fans alike grumble about the team's suffocating style; Ryan remains flat; the Sens' lack of depth catches up to them and they fall short of the playoffs for the third time in four years while not droppingfar enough to land a good draft pick