WASHINGTON (AP) This time last year, the Republican Party was hitting bottom.

Having already lost the presidency and House, the GOP would soon squander its Senate majority and watch with horror as thousands of Donald Trumps supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol in a violent attack last Jan. 6 that will be forever linked to the Republican presidents legacy.

What a difference 12 months make.

Entering a pivotal election year, a resurgent GOP is poised to reclaim one, if not both, chambers of Congress and retain its lock on dozens of state legislatures and governors offices . While victory is far from assured, the GOPs confidence is fueled by President Joe Bidens underwhelming poll numbers , a Democratic economic and social agenda thats faltering, intensifying concerns about inflation , and deepening frustration with the pandemic , which is unleashing yet another wave of infections upon an exhausted nation.

But at its most basic level, the Republican Partys optimism is born of the same political headwinds that have shaped U.S. politics for decades. The party that controls the White House Democrats , in this case has a tremendous disadvantage in the first election of a new presidency. Adding to that challenge, Democrats are struggling to prevent a far-reaching Republican campaign to make voting more difficult for core Democratic constituents while installing a slate of election officials allied with Trump.

GOP leaders are brimming with confidence.

Were going to have a hell of a year, said Florida Sen. Rick Scott, who leads the national GOPs Senate campaign arm. Every state that Biden won by less than 10 is now a battleground state.

Lest there be any doubt, Republicans dominated the off-year elections this fall across Virginia, New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania, where Democrats in races from governor to county recorder of deeds were defeated or barely held on in regions that Biden had comfortably carried by more than 10 percentage points a year earlier. Perhaps most disturbing for Democrats, suburban voters and independents who fled Trumps Republican Party in recent years shifted back without him on the ballot.

Democratic strategists privately concede that the party will be lucky to hold either congressional chamber in November, although the House may be in the most immediate peril.

They point to the surge of recent Democratic congressional retirements , dozens of Republican-controlled state legislatures that are actively reshaping House districts in the GOPs favor, a struggle to enact all of Bidens campaign promises, and a disengaged political base especially African Americans. Their priorities on policing and voting rights have gone unfulfilled in Democratic-controlled Washington, even after last years supposed national awakening on race.

Democratic National Committee Chair Jaime Harrison said too many Americans believe the country is moving in the wrong direction. But he attributes the pessimism to lingering anxiety from a pandemic that will soon enter its third year. With new COVID-19 medication coming onto the market and expanded vaccine access for children, he predicted the country would return to a sense of normalcy by the end of March.