Independent Senate candidate Dan Osborn is in striking distance of unseating two-term Republican senator Deb Fischer in ruby-red Nebraska according to several recent polls, forcing the GOP to spend millions of dollars in a race that could upend the battle for the Senate.

Fischer leads Osborn by just two percentage points among likely voters in a New York Times/Siena College survey released on Monday 48% to 46% putting her lead within the margin of error, with Osborn actually leading among registered voters. Five percent of respondents said they were undecided. A Change Research poll conducted earlier this month, meanwhile, found Osborn with a 2-point lead over the two-term incumbent.

The Cook Political Report also shifted the Nebraska race from likely to lean Republican in its assessment last week, an alarming sign for the GOP in a state former President Donald Trump carried by nearly 20 points in the 2020 presidential election.

A surprise loss in Nebraska could spoil Republicans plans to control the Senate in 2025. Although the party feels confident about picking up seats in West Virginia and Montana, an Osborn victory would leave them with just 50 seats in the upper chamber if they fail to win battleground races elsewhere in the country.