With eight weeks to go until the election, the Huffington Post Senate forecast model , launched on Monday, shows Republicans with a 60 percent probability of holding onto the Senate.

Democrats have only a 16 percent chance of taking the Senate majority outright, and theres a 24 percent chance the chamber ends up tied at 50 seats per party.

Obviously, thats not the happiest forecast for the Democrats. The odds are that they will pick up some seats. They just might not win enough to control the Senate. Democrats need to gain five seats to take the majority whoever wins the White House. They need only four if Hillary Clinton becomes president and Tim Kaine holds the tie-breaking vice presidential vote.

According to the HuffPost model, the most likely outcome next January is a Senate with 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats (including those independents who vote with the Democrats). The next most likely outcome: a 50/50 split.