The evidence is still coming in, but polls so far suggest that the tape of Donald Trump discussing sexual assault and the ensuing accusations didnt cause support for the GOP presidential nominee to collapse.

Instead, the weeks events seem to have reinforced a downward trend that started at the beginning of the month. Hes unlikely to recover, and Trumps odds of winning on Nov. 8 are less than 1 in 10, according to HuffPosts projections.

According to HuffPost Pollsters trend for the two-way Hillary Clinton vs. Trump race , Trumps numbers began dropping at the end of September after briefly rising as high as 43 percent. Hes at just under 41 percent now a small but significant decline. In polls including third-party candidates , theres been essentially no movement: Trump is stuck between 38 and 39 percent.

There have been a few alarm bells. Utah is one of them . Two polls out this week show Trump in a close race with Democratic nominee Clinton and conservative independent candidate Evan McMullin. Republicans typically win the state by large margins.

And presidential forecasts show declines in Trumps chances of winning over the last week. When The Huffington Posts presidential forecast model debuted on Oct. 3, Clinton had an 84 percent chance of winning , leaving Trump only a 16 percent chance of becoming president. Now, 11 days later, Trumps chances are in the single digits . Clinton has a 91 percent chance of winning. The model gives her 341 electoral votes to Trumps 197.