CEDAR RAPIDS, Iowa Democratic Rep. Dave Loebsack is better positioned than almost anyone in America to figure out how his party can defeat President Donald Trump. Loebsack is in his seventh term representing Iowas 2nd Congressional District, which went for Barack Obama twice before Trump won a plurality there in 2016. Before that, he spent two decades as a political science professor and was a go-to pundit on Iowa politics.

Loebsack plans to meet with every Democratic candidate running for president and make a decision on how to endorse by Labor Day. His No. 1 criteria for an endorsement?

For me, its all about who can win the next election and beat Donald Trump, he told reporters after an event for 2020 candidate and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar.

That electability-first stance puts Loebsack firmly in the mainstream of his party. More than half of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters thought it was more important to nominate the candidate most likely to win, with only 36% placing more importance on ideology, according to a HuffPost/YouGov poll from late March. That broadly matches other public polling, though the results can change depending on how the question is worded.

The perception of which candidates stand the best chance of toppling Trump will play a major role in deciding who ultimately wins the Democratic Partys nomination, according to polling and interviews with campaigns, operatives and rank-and-file voters across the early primary states.

But many of those perceptions and theories Joe Biden can win back the Rust Belt! Isnt Elizabeth Warren a bit like Hillary Clinton? Bernie Sanders can win West Virginia! are based on flimsy evidence. And unlike the simple question of whom voters like the most, the question of electability involves evaluating what other people might like. And thats something voters and even political operatives arent great at.

We dont know yet what electability looks like, said Loebsack, who announced last week he wouldnt run for reelection in 2020. The political landscape in America is really fluid right now.

If the former pundit with a doctorate in political science who represents an Obama-Trump district in Congress cant predict the best candidate to defeat Trump, how can anyone?

7 Theories Of Electability