WASHINGTON After weeks of false starts and negotiations, House Republicans are set to vote on their health care plan Thursday, without a review by the Congressional Budget Office or a clear sense that they have enough votes to pass the legislation.

Republican leaders announced Wednesday night that the House would vote on the GOPs legislation to repeal and replace of the Affordable Care Act after three congressmen who looked opposed signed on to an amendment that had already flipped two other Republicans.

We have the votes, Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) told reporters following a meeting with leadership. And with those late switches, McCarthy may finally be right.

If they dont already have the votes, Republicans are clearly close to enough to go to the floor. There are roughly 16 Republicans who are hard noes, another few who seem to be leaning in opposition, and an additional couple dozen who havent unequivocally stated where they stand.

At this point, that aversion to going on the record may be more about avoiding political blowback than to actually taking a stand. Members seem to prefer to not take a public position if they wont have to vote. But those mysteries, supposedly, will be laid bare Thursday, when Republicans give the bill an up-or-down that will require just about every undecided member to support the bill.

The big development that seemed to put the GOP in a better position was three Republicans Jeff Denham (Calif.), David Valadao (Calif.), and David Young (Iowa) signing on to an amendment from Fred Upton (R-Mich.) and Billy Long (R-Mo.). The amendment would provide $8 billion for states that waive provisions for pre-existing medical conditions. Upton, who had said on Tuesday that additional money for high-risk pools would not get him to yes, completely flipped his position on Wednesday, when he accepted the $8 billion deal.

I thought it was just maybe a general pool, Upton told reporters. This is targeted specifically towards those that might be exclude because of a governors waiver.

To arrive at the $8 billion figure, Upton said leadership told him it would cost $5 billion. He negotiated the sum higher, without explaining how anyone got any of those numbers.