If the polling is accurate, Rep. Jamaal Bowman is the heavy underdog in Tuesdays Democratic primary for New Yorks 16th Congressional District.

The topline story of the race is, understandably, pro-Israel groups record-breaking spending against Bowman, a passionate pro-Palestinian advocate who has dubbed Israels invasion of Gaza a genocide. Super PACs backing Bowmans challenger, Westchester County Executive George Latimer, have outspent pro-Bowman super PACs on the airwaves by a 9-to-1 margin, helping make it the most expensive House primary in history. The independent spending arm of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee alone has spent $14.6 million on television, digital and direct-mail advertisements.

They are so afraid of us those who oppose the working class, multiracial, multieconomic, multicultural democracy that we are trying to build, Bowman told volunteers getting ready to canvas the Bronxs Co-Op City neighborhood on May 26. Theyre spending more money in this race than they have ever spent in the history of any race. Thats how afraid AIPAC is.

It is impossible to predict the results of a counterfactual scenario where Bowman did not face this kind of spending. But while he would have undoubtedly fared better if he were not up against an avalanche of super PAC money, his problems predate the lopsided advertising blitz.

Bowman, 48, was trailing Latimer, 70, by 17 percentage points in early April, before advertising began, according to a poll commissioned by the Democratic Majority for Israel PAC, which is supporting Latimer. The mid-April internal poll released by Bowmans campaign, by contrast, had him up by one percentage point.

The Latimer campaigns own internal polling in January, reviewed by HuffPost, was somewhere in between those two surveys, showing the county executive ahead by 10 points. Latimer was also more popular according to their own polling, with 67% of district voters having a favorable view of him and just 12% having an unfavorable view, compared with 49% favorable and 38% unfavorable for Bowman. Bowmans team, for its part, highlighted voter support for a cease-fire in the region as evidence that his positions remain popular. (Bowman called for a cease-fire on Oct. 16 .)

Bowmans support in the district, which includes a sliver of the northeastern Bronx and all of lower Westchester County a mix of diverse working-class cities and leafy, affluent suburbs has been tenuous from the moment he won in 2020. His vote against the bipartisan infrastructure bill in 2021 and his pulling of the fire alarm in Congress this past September further undermined his standing with many moderate-to-liberal Democrats . Following the Hamas attack on Oct. 7, his shift away from an even-handed posture on Israel-Palestine toward a hard left-wing stance cost him some progressive Jewish support and motivated existing Jewish detractors to get more active in politics.

I was always having to be his defender, said Danielle Tagger-Epstein, chair of the Rye City Democratic Committee and a Bowman donor as recently as January 2023. And I could no longer defend his behavior.

Before Oct. 7, Tagger-Epstein had been frustrated with Bowmans failure to follow through on her efforts to arrange conversations with her rabbi and other Jewish friends, as well as his July 2023 decision not to attend Israeli President Isaac Herzogs speech to Congress. (Bowman cited Herzogs failure to do more to protect Palestinian human rights; however, critics note that Herzog is a figurehead rather than a political leader.)

After October 7, I couldnt even look him in the face, said Tagger-Epstein, who is also active in J Street, a liberal pro-Israel group.

All of those factors created an environment where Latimer, a 35-year veteran of suburban politics with a strong local base for support and a reputation as a detail-obsessed incrementalist, felt comfortable entering the race with AIPACs support. Before any money even hit the airwaves or mailboxes, the Latimer campaign and allied groups used a steady stream of opposition research about Bowmans past and present views standard fare in any campaign to paint him as a radical activist rather than an effective lawmaker.

Hes really his own worst enemy, added a J Street activist who requested anonymity to protect their relationship with Bowman in the event of his victory. The voter, who sees AIPAC as bad for both U.S. political integrity and Israels long-term interests, lost patience with Bowmans most anti-Israel comments and stances after defending the congressman to the persons coreligionists for so many years.

He created alliances that shouldnt be created. I shouldnt be allying with an AIPAC candidate, the J Street activist said.

A New York Democratic strategist supportive of Bowmans bid had a similar assessment.

AIPAC was going to make a lot of noise regardless. He made it a lot easier. He became a bogeyman, said the strategist, who asked for anonymity for professional reasons. Im upset that AIPAC is going to get wins this cycle from people who had already written their death sentences for lots of other reasons.