The United States is strongly favored to win the most overall medals when the Paris Olympics open in a month.

The big question is this: will the Americans also top the gold-medal tally in a close race with China?

The United States is projected to win 123 medals overall 37 gold, 34 silver, and 52 bronze. China is forecast to win 87 overall 36 gold, 29 silver, and 22 bronze.

This forecast is done by Nielsens Gracenote Sports, which supplies statistical analysis for sports leagues around the world. It also tracks major competitions involving Olympic sports leading up to the Games.

The United States and China finished 1-2 in both categories in 2021 in the pandemic-delayed Tokyo Olympics.

Gracenotes ranking is based on overall medals won, although others focus the rankings on gold totals. The International Olympic Committee does not compile rankings, leaving this to nations and local media.