The Trump administration is moving ahead with a federal rule that would freeze pay for many agricultural guest workers for the next two years, even as they remain essential personnel during a pandemic.

The new regulation would change the methodology used to determine the prevailing wage rates for workers with H-2A visas. Until now, minimum pay rates for most of these workers were set by a survey the U.S. Department of Agriculture conducts twice a year, asking farms for data on their workers hours and earnings. The Trump administration has tried to suspend that survey and intends to base future pay increases on data from the Labor Department starting in 2023.

In the intervening years, the prevailing wage rates, which vary from state to state, would remain at their 2019 levels, leaving workers pay stagnant. Once pay increases resumed, experts say they would likely be smaller for most fieldworkers than they would have been under the previous methodology.

Workers on H-2A visas come from Mexico and other countries to work temporarily on U.S. farms, typically picking and processing crops. Worker advocates say the wide use of guest workers means the farm labor market does not function like a free market, since these foreign workers are poorer and more willing than Americans to accept below-market pay.

Under the law, employers have to pay guest workers a minimum prevailing wage known as the Adverse Effect Wage Rate (AEWR) so that their pay isnt so low that it undercuts that of U.S. workers. In most cases, that prevailing wage comes from the survey that Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue has moved to suspend.

The Labor Department published the new regulation last week. Senior agency officials said on a call with reporters just before Election Day that the change would give employers more stability and predictability when it came to wage increases. They described the current pay rates determined by the agricultural survey as too volatile, making it hard for employers to plan their payrolls each year.

It is a victory for farmers, agricultural workers, and the American people, who rely on a vibrant agricultural sector to supply food for our families, John Pallasch, the Labor Departments assistant secretary for employment and training, said in a statement.

But as the agencys own analysis shows, the rule would undoubtedly bring growers long-term savings on labor costs relative to the status quo.

The text of the rule says it would lead to transfer payments of an estimated $1.68 billion over 10 years. As a Labor Department chart makes clear, that term is a euphemism: H-2A workers would be transferring $1.68 billion to their employers, in the form of lost wages.

From the Labor Departments rule: