As open fighting between two of the Middle Easts best-armed players worsens, more than a million Palestinian lives hang in the balance.

Israel on Thursday attacked Iran, in retaliation for an April 13 attack from Iranian drones and missiles, which was itself a retaliation for the Israeli bombing of an Iranian consulate on April 1.

Iran downplayed the significance of the strike, with state media saying it caused no major damage. The U.S., Israels military lifeline, did so too. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters the Biden administration has not been involved in any offensive operations and seeks de-escalation and [to] avoi[d] a larger conflict.

The state-on-state strikes between Israel and Iran, a prospect that risks sparking an all-out war, are over, a regional government source argued to CNN after the latest Israeli strike, saying Iran was unlikely to respond. Multiple national security analysts agreed Israels move seemed carefully calibrated, ostensibly in line with the priorities of the U.S. and of anxious neighboring countries.

Still, the two countries indisputably moved closer to head-on conflict through their unprecedented tit-for-tat in recent weeks. The U.S. will celebrate a small success. But the spiral is still spinning downward: rules are being rewritten on the battlefield, wrote Emile Hokayem, an analyst at the International institute for Strategic Studies, a think tank, on X.

As the potential for extremely costly miscalculation persists, questions remain open: Is this the full extent of Israels response to Iran? Will the two now continue their longstanding bids to weaken each other through clashes elsewhere, perhaps in already bruised Lebanon?

Its hard to see how the spiral stops until another question is answered: What about Palestine?

Rafah, the town in southern Gaza where nearly 1.5 million Palestinians are sheltering, is the only section of the strip Israel has yet to invade its sweeping, hugely controversial campaign.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says an attack on Rafah is vital to shield Israel from the Gaza-based militant group Hamas.

Washington says it cannot support that plan without a serious strategy for evacuating and helping civilians a strategy Israel has yet to provide, the White House confirmed in a Thursday statement, after a high-level meeting between U.S. and Israeli officials.

The Biden administration is casting its attempt to temper the Rafah operation as distinct from its bid to prevent an Israel-Iran war. But to other observers , its impossible to separate the two. President Joe Biden is simultaneously the only outside world leader with the power to force a change in course for Israel, and a longtime ally of Israeli leadership who may be loath to seek their restraint, particularly as the country is in active conflict with Iran.

Calling the resurgent Israeli-Palestinian conflict the beating heart of this increasingly regional problem, Monica Marks, a professor at New York Universitys Abu Dhabi campus, told HuffPost on Friday: The thing to watch for is whether Netanyahu bought more wiggle room on the Biden administrations expectation for Israel to make humanitarian plans regarding Rafahs civilians.

Israels actions suggest it continues to see moving on Rafah as inevitable. Sources told multiple media outlets preparations had already begun, with leaflets directing civilians to flee already printed and scheduled to be dropped on Monday, though Israeli sourced told CNN the Iran attack had caused a delay. On Monday night, Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant held a military briefing on Rafah, and at Thursdays U.S.-Israeli summit, both sides agreed discussions about the offensive would continue.

The prolonged uncertainty is chilling for civilians in Rafah, which constitutes the last remotely functional section of Gaza. The vast majority of Palestinians are barred from leaving the territory for neighboring Egypt.

Describing widespread anticipation of an Israeli ground invasion and constant anxiety due to the ongoing airstrikes, Ghada Alhaddad told HuffPost she has witnessed panicked civilians Rafah to try to return to other parts of Gaza, only to find little but wreckage there.

The lingering sense of fear has left many unsure of where to go next, said Alhaddad, who works for the charity Oxfam.