Officials warn Hurricane Melissa could be ‘catastrophic’ for Jamaica

People in Jamaica have been urged to take shelter as Hurricane Melissa continues to strengthen offshore, with heavy rains and tropical storm-strength winds already hitting parts of the island.

The hurricane, which has intensified to a Category 5 storm, was about 160km (100 miles) south of Jamaica on Monday and on course to hit the western flanks of the island early Tuesday. Moving at just 7km/h (4mph), the storm could cut a particularly punishing path, bringing landslides and storm surges as it crawls across the country, officials warned.

Still, on Monday, Evan Thompson, the principal director of the Meteorological Service of Jamaica, said a slight chance remained that the storm could miss the island.

“Of course, all of us are hoping for that and praying for that,” Thompson said. “But at the same time, we have to be practical. Right now, the projected path takes it to the southwestern part of Jamaica, impacting either eastern Westmoreland or extreme western Saint Elizabeth.”

Currently, the storm is projected to travel northeast across the island, exiting along the coast of Saint Anne Parish, Thompson said.

Category 5 is the highest on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, with sustained winds exceeding 250km/h (157mph). Up to about one metre (40 inches) of rainfall could hit parts of Jamaica as the storm passes directly over the island, threatening flash flooding and landslides.

“I don’t want to encourage fear or worry, but I do expect you to become concerned about what is taking place,” Thompson said.

“If you think that you are free from [the worst of the storm], think again, because the heavy rains will affect you, the strong winds reaching tropical storm force could still continue to affect you as we go through the day on Tuesday.”

In an earlier webcast, US National Hurricane Center (NHC) Deputy Director Jamie Rhome said the potential for extreme rain, coupled with the slow speed of the storm, could “create a catastrophic event” in Jamaica.

“You need to just be wherever you’re going to be and be ready to ride this out for several days,” Rhome said.

Jamaica’s government ordered mandatory evacuations late on Sunday for Port Royal in Kingston; Portland Cottage and Rocky Point in Clarendon; Old Harbour Bay in Saint Catherine; and Taylor Land, Bull Bay, New Haven and Riverton City in Saint Andrew.

“Many of these communities will not survive this flooding,” Desmond McKenzie, minister of local government, said at a news conference. “Kingston is low, extremely low … No community in Kingston is immune from flooding.

“There is nothing more we can do as a government but to beg and beseech persons to heed the warning. And if it will help, I will go on my knees,” he said.

“This is one bet you cannot win. You cannot bet against Melissa,” McKenzie warned, advising that people could go to more than 650 shelters that are open across the country.

The AFP news agency spoke with Winston Moxam as he hurried to prepare his home for the approaching storm.

“I lose my roof, I lose a whole lot of things,” Maxim said, adding that he was particularly worried by warnings that the storm could be worse than 1988’s Hurricane Gilbert, which left more than 40 dead in Jamaica and killed hundreds more around the Caribbean and in Mexico.

Jamaica’s two main airports, the Norman Manley International Airport and Sangster International Airport in Montego Bay, as well as seaports, were closed.

Trail of destruction

After passing over Jamaica, the storm is forecast to head north and cross over eastern Cuba on Tuesday night, while continuing to bring rains and heavy winds to Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

Melissa has already been blamed for at least four deaths in Haiti and the Dominican Republic this week, as its outer bands brought heavy rains and landslides.

The Dominican Republic’s emergency operations centre has placed nine of 31 provinces on red alert due to a risk of flash floods, rising rivers and landslides.

The Cuban government issued a hurricane warning for the provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin. It also sent a tropical storm warning to the province of Las Tunas.

Climate change ‘a daily reality’

Although Jamaica is used to hurricanes, climate change is making tropical storms more frequent and severe, including by causing heavier rainfall and slower-moving storms, due to warming oceans and air temperatures.

With a population of less than three million people, Jamaica is responsible for just 0.02 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, according to data from the World Resources Institute. But as an island nation, it is expected to continue to bear the brunt of worsening climate effects.

Speaking at the United Nations General Assembly in September, Jamaica’s Prime Minister Andrew Holness urged wealthy countries to increase climate financing to assist countries like Jamaica with adapting.

“Climate change is not a distant threat or an academic consideration. It is a daily reality for small island developing states like Jamaica,” he said.

Melissa is the 13th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from early June to late November.

The last major hurricane to affect Jamaica was Beryl in early July 2024, which was an abnormally strong storm for the time of year.

Beryl brought downpours and strong winds to Jamaica as it moved past the island’s southern coast, leaving at least four people dead.