Bihar: BJP Knows Disowning Nitish Kumar Now Will Backfire On It

On Wednesday evening, almost 24 hours after the NDA won a closely fought Bihar election, Nitish Kumar broke his silence with a non-committal tweet thanking the people and Prime Minister Narendra Modi . The mercurial leader, said people familiar with the matter, was “sulking” over the results and the BJP ’s sidelining of him until a little while ago. 

While analysts have speculated on what the results mean for the JD(U)-BJP alliance in Bihar, senior BJP and JD(U) leaders claimed that there were no doubts about Nitish’s anointment as chief minister.

PM Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah , these leaders told HuffPost India, would fulfil the promise they had made to Nitish that he would be Bihar CM for the fourth straight term, regardless of which party gets more seats in the alliance.

Nitish may take oath right after Diwali, they added.

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The Bihar election results—which wrapped up late on Tuesday night—have left many key contenders dejected. RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav , who could have been one of India’s youngest ever chief ministers if the Grand Alliance won, will now have to wait much longer. Chirag Paswan , whose Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) won just one seat at the end of a noisy campaign, will have to negotiate a political future away from being the BJP’s B-team. And while Nitish is undoubtedly on the winning side, his JD(U)’s tally has been reduced to just 43 out of 243 assembly seats.

The result has left the 69-year-old disappointed as his popularity and stature are at the lowest of his political career. People familiar with the matter told HuffPost India that Nitish even gave a mild  rebuke to senior JD (U) minister Sanjay Jha and former JD (U) minister Ashok Choudhary when they jointly visited him to offer congratulations and discuss the party’s post-result strategy. 

Nitish’s demeanour is markedly different this time from 2015, when the RJD-JD(U)-Congress alliance won a massive mandate under the leadership of Nitish. As the results started pouring in then, he broke his silence with “huge, baap re!”, recalled a JD(U) leader.

But during the 2020 campaign, the BJP sidelined Nitish in its posters and speeches, making sure the anti-Nitish sentiment among voters did not extend to the alliance.

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However, the right-wing party is unlikely to disown him despite having the upper hand in the alliance.

“I am telling you that 110%, Nitish ji is going to be chief minister. Only a formal announcement is awaited,” said senior Bihar BJP leader Sanjay Mayukh.

However, he refused to respond to a question whether Nitish returning as CM would anger voters or not.

While the BJP has more seats, it knows that trying to sideline Nitish at this point would only backfire. The BJP can’t afford a repeat of Maharashtra in Bihar . It is also aware that despite the anti-incumbency wave Nitish faced, women voters had faith in him. Besides, he continues to enjoy the trust of a large section of EBC voters. For long-term political gains, the BJP can’t afford to offend the sentiment of Nitish’s core voters. Political analysts think that if the BJP has some departure plans for Nitish in the coming months or year, it will be grand as befitting his stature.

However, many BJP workers will certainly not be pleased to know that Sushil Modi will continue as deputy chief minister. The leader is perceived more as Nitish’s man than as a BJP leader.

JD (U) national spokesperson KC Tyagi said that the perception of the anti-Nitish wave was created by the media.

“Yes, it was a tough fight. But the NDA won. This is the victory of Nitish Kumar, since women and EBC voters supported NDA on the name of Nitish Kumar,” he said.

Journalist Raj Singh, who runs a news portal called Samacharwala, said that he had seen during his travels the support that women voters had for Nitish, who banned alcohol and offered scholarships to girls.

RJD’s disappointment

After most exit polls predicted a resounding win, RJD leaders and workers were confident that the Mahagathbandhan would cross the majority mark. But by evening, leaders realized the game was slipping out their control.

Rabri Devi hurriedly summoned her son Tejashwi and the party’s Rajya Sabha MP Manoj Jha to her Patna residence to take whatsoever legal and political steps needed to be taken. Manoj Jha was asked to lead and represent the party with aggressive posturing, as by night the alliance leaders were alleging foul play in the counting.

“NDA dishonestly grabbed victory from us. The Chief Minister misused his power to influence the result in at least two dozen seats through his bureaucrats. We even lodged a complaint at the Election Commission of India,” RJD spokesperson Mritunjay Tiwari told HuffPost India.

Party supremo Lalu Prasad Yadav , who is lodged at Kelly’s bungalow in Ranchi, was so worried over the result that twice, doctors from RIMS visited for his health check-up, said a person familiar with the matter on condition of anonymity.

Tejashwi has emerged as a leader and even came close to snatching power. But the counter-consolidation of votes, which was quite visible in the later phase of campaigning, pushed him back.

“We surrendered a good number of seats to please alliance partners. We gave 70 seats to the Congress and it lost 52 seats. Left parties flourished at our cost. Our tally reduced from  80 seats in 2015 to 75 this time. But the satisfying thing is that Tejashwi has proved that he is not a rookie and he is capable of putting veteran leaders like Nitish and Narendra Modi on tenterhooks,” said a senior RJD leader.   

The Congress camp is unhappy that an uninspiring state president like Madan Mohan Jha damaged the party by making wrong selection of candidates.

Congress MLC Prem Chandra Mishra, apparently the lone voice in the party who always advocated strong measures for the party’s revival, was miffed over the outcome.

“I am no one to comment. Candidate selection was done by our state president and senior leader Akhilesh Singh,’ Mishra told HuffPost India.