An Irrational Approach to Your March Madness Office Pool

This is a semi-annual column for me, in which I carefully (or carelessly) analyze the March Madness bracket. The first round of the tournament is sacred to me: I watch the games, partake in more than my share of adult beverages and I almost always lose my national champion pick right away in upset fashion. So take this article with a grain of salt. But this is analysis you won't find anywhere else, and maybe for good reason. Be that as it may, here are four-and-a-half tips for office bracket dominance:

1. Beware the first round upsets. This year the experts will tell you that the field is wide open, which may make you upset-happy. But keep in mind that in there are 32 automatic bids decided by a conference tournament and only 10 number one seeds advanced out of those tournaments this year. What does that mean? Well, even in the smaller conferences, the underdogs won. So while there may be parody at the top, most of the weaker conferences are sending their weaker teams, so early upsets may not be as abundant as the experts think.

2. Always trust Izzo. Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo has gone to at least one Final Four nearly every four years. That means if you enroll at Michigan State today, you're almost assured of going to one Final Four in your college career. And if you're like Stahlmann men that take seven years to graduate undergrad, you might get two trips.

3. When in doubt, go with established coaches. In a year when the top talent is spread out among 30 teams that have a legit shot, it's the expert coaches that will likely prevail. Consider schools like Duke, UNC and Michigan State, of course, but don't be afraid to dig deeper. I have Miami as my national champion pick because their coach, Jim Larraaga, went to a Final Four with something called George Mason University. Never heard of that school? You're not alone. I hadn't either until Larraaga took them to the big show.

4. If you want the office glory, think a little different. The risk of any bracket is playing it safe. Because while No. 1 seed Kansas is a logical pick, a lot of people in your office will likely pick them. So that means if Kansas wins, you still have to pick the other games better than all the rest of those folks to be in the money. This is a year where even a six seed has a real chance. Pick your favorite and ride the wave, because if you pick Arizona and they cut down the nets in April, you'll look like a genius.

And four-and-a-half: Pick against your favorite team to keep a mental balance. I happen to be from Minnesota and I was born with a natural disdain for Wisconsin. Lovely people, lovely state, but I'm just wired to dislike their sports teams. Which is exactly why I picked them to roll all the way to the Elite Eight this year. Why? Well, if they win my bracket wins. And if they lose, I win in terms of personal joy. It's a classic win-win.

Hit me up on twitter to let me know how I'm to blame for your bracket being busted.