The Congressional Art Of Negotiating Without Any Leverage

WASHINGTON -- As conservatives push to use an upcoming spending bill to block Syrian refugees from coming into the country, the far right is running into a difficult question: How do you extract omnibus concessions from GOP leaders when you're going to vote against the bill anyway?

It's still unclear exactly what the omnibus will look like. But the must-pass legislation that will fund the government past Dec. 11 will need 60 votes in the Senate and the signature of President Barack Obama . And that doesn't portend well for the support of hardline conservatives who have no intention of ever supporting the measure anyway.

One senior GOP aide summed it up this way: You can't ask for concessions when you're going to vote against the bill no matter what.

"It shows a fundamental lack of understanding in how the legislative process works," the aide said. "It's hard for them to have any leverage when they've already shown their hand."

But some conservatives do seem to understand that game. And they are trying to conceal their hand. Publicly, at least.

"Concessions are a byproduct of a willingness to support the underlying bill or, at a minimum, not working to defeat that same bill," Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.) told The Huffington Post on Friday.

The North Carolina Republican, who introduced a resolution to oust now-former Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio), noted that conservatives are indeed hoping to get policy riders in the omnibus. "But I only see those negotiations being meaningful if they are willing to ultimately support the final product," Meadows said.

And that willingness is the real question.

"There are probably folks who are willing to take a few crumbs to vote for bad legislation," Mo Brooks (R-Ala.) told HuffPost on Friday. "I'm not one of them."

Brooks said he evaluates bills based on whether they are a net gain or net loss for America in his conservative estimation. "And making a bill a little bit less bad is not the kind of exchange I make," he said.

For Brooks, the major issue is the additional $25 billion in domestic spending above sequestration levels. That additional money may have already been agreed to in the budget deal  from the end of October, but Brooks doesn't see why he should support the bill just because it's already a reality.

"Let the liberals in our conference join with the Democrats to pass an appropriations bill that is financially irresponsible," Brooks said.

On top of the increased spending, some conservatives could vote against the omnibus purely because it doesn't defund Planned Parenthood .

But there are signs that conservatives are willing to overlook those realities. Most everyone on Capitol Hill acknowledges -- conservatives included -- that Republicans aren't going to renegotiate spending levels or suddenly block Planned Parenthood . At least, groups like the House Freedom Caucus want GOP leaders to think there's a possibility they could support the omnibus bill.

"I don't want to speculate on something I have not seen," Rep. Jeff Duncan (R-S.C.), a new member of the HFC board, said Friday. "I know that we are trying to address the refugees in the omnibus. Other than that, I am not involved in anything broader at this point."

One senior GOP aide wondered whether there's anything that the Freedom Caucus wants in the bill that would still make it passable for Obama's signature.

"Hypothetically the answer is yes," the aide said Friday. "I’m not sure that anything would check the box in both categories, but there seems to be a willingness to look for that common ground."

The aide noted that most members won't announce where they stand on the omnibus until the very end -- either because they are trying to make leaders think their vote is up for grabs, or because they don't want to get ahead of themselves in denouncing a bill they haven't seen. "So hope springs eternal," the aide wrote in an email. "'Till the end anyway!"

One conservative lawmaker told HuffPost Friday that the omnibus was Speaker Paul Ryan's (R-Wis.) "first big test."

"Conservatives are looking to see how he handles the next few weeks," the member continued. "Many of us won't vote for any omnibus at the new, higher spending levels, but others might be persuaded by significant policy riders."

The most significant policy rider is shaping up to be one that blocks Syrian refugees from coming to the United States. But if conservatives are just going to vote against the bill anyway, and if GOP leaders are going to need Democratic votes, adding refugee provisions could just complicate the bill.

The dynamic of hardline conservatives moving legislation closer to the middle -- a dynamic that establishment Republicans have complained about for years -- just makes the job of Speaker Ryan and other Republican leaders more difficult.

If they need a chunk of Democrats to vote for the omnibus, then including provisions that would functionally block Syrian and Iraqi refugees from coming to the United States is a tall task. The delicate art may be in finding a way to appease Republicans but not lose Democrats.

What little leverage conservatives have may be just in making sure that Ryan doesn't lose the goodwill he's banked thus far. As Meadows suggested, it's one thing to not support the omnibus. It's whole other thing to not campaign against it.

According to House Freedom Caucus Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), Ryan has pledged to not pass anything major without a "majority of the majority. That devotion to the so-called Hastert Rule -- a name that has fallen out of favor since former Speaker Dennis Hastert pleaded guilty to paying hush money to conceal a past misdeed -- probably won't be tested too much on the omnibus. But it's one of the few boxes Ryan has to check if he doesn't want conservatives to completely turn on him.

Correction: Due to an editing error, an earlier version of this story incorrectly stated Paul Ryan's home state. He is from Wisconsin.