Deadly Afghanistan: Trump's Imbroglio

The holy month of Ramadan 2017 just culminated with the Eid-Al-Fitr celebrations. With 213 dead and 713 injured, it was the deadliest holy month in Afghanistan. It all began in the first week of Ramadan, when Muslims throughout the world observe fasting and retrospection. On the first day of Ramadan, a powerful explosion at a bus station in the eastern province of Khost killed 18 and injured 6. But the bloodiest attack happened on May 31st in the Afghan capital Kabul. This brazen attack, which killed 150 and injured hundreds of others, is a chilling reminder of how fragile the security situation in Afghanistan continues to be. This was the single deadliest terrorist bombing in the country since the ouster of the Taliban in 2001. A suicide bomber detonated a Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Device in the heart of Kabul. The attack happened during the morning rush hour in the so-called green zones Zanbaq Square, where many foreign embassies, hotels and shops are located. The self-proclaimed jihadi terrorist groups who claim to be righteous Muslims flagrantly disregarded the spirt and the letter of Ramadan, not only in Afghanistan, but also recently in London, Manchester and elsewhere. The Afghan intelligence service, the National Directorate for Security, said that the attack was the handiwork of the Haqqani Group with the assistance of Pakistan's Inter Services Intelligence . It is an open secret that the Taliban, Haqqani Group and a number of other terrorist networks have safe havens in Pakistan.

While the Afghan National Security Forces continue to sustain a high number of casualties, the majority of victims of terror bombings are civilians. The victims survivors not only have to endure the tragedy of the death of their loved ones, but in most cases they have also lost the breadwinner. This, combined with the lack of a social safety net, compounds peoples misery. On the 29th day of Ramadan a powerful bomb killed 34 people and injured another 58 in the capital of the southern province of Helmand. The explosion ripped through a crowd of civil servants at the entrance of the Kabul Bank in Lashkargah. The victims were at the bank to collect their monthly paycheck to prepare for the Eid celebrations.

Amid this carnage, bickering and political discord flared up again between the members of the coalition making up the National Unity Government (NUG) of Afghanistan. Afghans took to the streets of Kabul to register their frustration about NUGs inability to secure the country. The protests and demonstrations resulted in additional casualties among the protesters.

As Afghanistan burned, all eyes turned toward Washington in anticipation of a new US policy toward the longest American war. The US president Donald Trump had reportedly planned to unveil his Afghan policy when he recently met with NATO leaders in Brussels. But no new demarche was announced to deal with the deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan. By all indications, Afghanistan has become a quagmire and it is now Mr. Trumps to deal with. Although there is no guarantee that any new initiative consisting of increasing US troop levels will have an immediate positive result, the assumption was that as the Commander in Chief Mr. Trump would own up to his imbroglio.

But instead, the White House announced that Trump has outsourced the Afghan war responsibility to the Secretary of Defense, James Mattis. As such, the Pentagon will determine the number of additional troops, estimated to be around 4000, to deploy in Afghanistan . Whether Mr. Trumps motivation is to empower the generals or to not take responsibility if the plan doesnt work is unclear. Mr. Trump blamed the generals and the Obama administration for death of a Navy Seal member in Yemen. The raid authorized by Trump took place last January during which William Owens was killed.

Regardless of who makes the decision to deploy more troops in Afghanistan, based on experience, another troop surge will not stem the surge of the Taliban, Islamic State in Khorsan (IS-K) and other terrorist groups. IS-K, which was the target of a much touted Massive Ordinance Air Drop (MOAB), has now become active in northern Afghanistan. Taliban leader Mullah Haibatullah issued a statement on the eve of Eid. He stated that the deployment of more US and NATO troops will prolong the Afghan war. He said that the Taliban will continue to fight until the last foreign troop leaves the country. Compounding the Afghan war challenges and the fight against the Taliban and other terrorist groups is Pakistan, which until now has refused to abandon supporting extremist groups.

It is a forgone conclusion that more US and NATO forces will head to Afghanistan this year. But it will not achieve any desired result unless the military surge is accompanied by a serious diplomatic effort; pressure is put on Pakistan to reign in the terrorist groups it is harboring; a demand is made on the Afghan NUG to bring about political reforms, curb corruption, and establish rule of law; and there is a push to bring other regional actors such as India, China and the Arab Gulf States to the table.

If Ramadan 2017 is an indication of more to come, it will be another deadly year in Americas longest quagmire to the detriment of all involved, especially the Afghans who have been ravaged by nearly four decades of brutal strife.