How Trump Has Telegraphed His Fears

Presidential campaigns spend significant amounts of money on opposition research to find their opponent's weak points. While there is value in learning all you can about your opponents the truth is they telegraph their perceived weaknesses with decisions they make throughout the campaign - for free.

In fact, if you've ever wanted insight into the inner workings of a campaign just pay attention to the places they travel, organizations they meet with and speeches (other than the standard stump) they give. Toss in a campaign advisory group or two and you have all of the clues about a campaign's feared weak points.

Most political consultants try to shore up a candidate's weaknesses, rather than developing emotional narratives about their strengths, and in doing so provide unlimited amounts of inadvertent free tactical advice on how to best to beat them.

Donald Trump is no different.

Sure, he likes his bluster. But for all of the hot air, there has been plenty on display of what he and his team (including his closest family advisors) see as his weak points. And in doing so, he has provided a great opportunity for the Clinton campaign and surrogates to put him on the defensive. Here are three of his fears.

Fear 1? Evangelicals.

Proof? His VP choice, organizing a meeting in New York for evangelicals (where he promised to appoint anti-abortion judges among other things) and create an "executive board" of evangelicals to advise him during the campaign.

Let's be honest. Trump wanted to continue his bromance with Governor Christie. I mean, it was almost sad watching the Governor beg for the position. But, Trump didn't have a fear that Governor Christie could fix. He's not exactly an evangelical.

But Governor Pence? That's a different story.

Trump has absolutely no credibility with Christian conservative leaders. Given that Pew Research Center estimates that about one-third of Republican voters are evangelical Christian, it's clear why this fear is real. Now, maybe it's his flip-flopping on abortion or LGBT issues that haven't helped him much. But whatever it is, the campaign has made it clear through their actions that they see this as one of their main weaknesses.

Fear 2? Foreign Policy.

Proof? Walls, bans and waterboarding.

The more extreme stance the better to show perceived strength but really to telegraph the campaign's feared weakness. All in Twitter length. George Will said it best when he said, "[Trump] can say everything he knows about any subject in 140 characters, and I can't."

From the Trump camp's clear leak of the vetting of a retired General for VP to tweeting about anything even remotely associated with foreign policy, Trump and his team have shown repeatedly with their actions that they see foreign policy as his weak point. They attempt to create an image of strength through tough talk but really what it is showing is a campaign decision to shore up what they see as a weakness.

Fear 3? Appearing weak.

Proof? Everything he does.

Do you remember the arcade game Whac-A-Mole, where players use a toy mallet to hit toy moles, which appear at random from their holes? Trump can't let any accusation about his lack of knowledge on, or approach to, any issue without responding by whacking at it. From every comment made by a national political commentator to policy issues raised by opponents, Trump and his team will divert a lot of energy toward providing a response - regardless of necessity.

Why does this matter?

When Trump's camp is challenged on items that they fear he is weak they have demonstrated they will spend a disproportionate amount of time responding to them. This drives them off message and allows the Clinton campaign to create an underlying narrative about who Trump is to the voters.

Every campaign needs to respond to attacks. But some campaigns, like Trump's, don't know the difference between what matters and what doesn't. When a campaign is caught responding to their fears they are unable to develop a narrative on their strengths. In fact, it leaves your campaign's perceived strengths vulnerable to being undermined - and once you lose your perceived strengths, you have nothing.

As Jennifer Ruben noted in an opinion piece in the Washington Post, "when forced into a corner, Trump will crack. For all his bluster and bullying, his ego is as frail as it is enormous."

Trump has inadvertently telegraphed to the world just what some of those issues are that will force him into a corner. And Clinton's campaign and surrogates have an opportunity to take advantage of that.